Market’s Week in Review

April 24 - April 30, 2026

Short-Term ETF Price Targets

ETF

Short-Term Target

SPY

$723

QQQ

$676

Week’s Market Performance

Index

Current Level

Percent Change: Week

Percent Change: Year-to-Date

S&P 500

199.57

7.01%

+3.84%

NASDAQ 100

27,782.63

+8.72

+6.07%

VIX

19.19

12.51%

+27.68%

10-Year Treasury Yield

4.172%

0.00%

+4.42%

Gold

4617.03

+6.88%

+8.71

Oil

105.24

+6.88%

+67.70

Market News

Apple Posts Record Q2 Revenue of $111.2 Billion on iPhone and Mac Strength

Apple Inc. reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $111.2 billion on April 30, surpassing the analyst consensus of approximately $108.9 billion and representing a 17 percent increase from the $95.4 billion recorded in the same period a year earlier. iPhone revenue came in at $57 billion, a 21.7 percent year-over-year gain driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 lineup, including the newly introduced iPhone 17e. Earnings per share reached $2.01, ahead of the Wall Street forecast of $1.93. Mac revenue also exceeded expectations, supported by the MacBook Neo. The quarter additionally marked the appearance of incoming CEO John Ternus on the earnings call as the company prepares for a leadership transition away from Tim Cook. Apple announced a $100 billion share buyback authorization and raised its quarterly dividend.

The results underscore Apple's ability to sustain outsized hardware growth even as the broader consumer electronics market remains uneven. iPhone revenue growth of more than 21 percent is particularly notable given lingering global supply constraints on advanced 3-nanometer chips. The Services segment continued its steady expansion, providing a recurring revenue buffer that analysts view as central to Apple's long-term valuation. Despite the earnings beat, shares fell approximately 1.1 percent in after-hours trading, a reaction some analysts attributed to cautious forward guidance rather than fundamental weakness. For investors, the $100 billion buyback represents one of the largest capital return commitments in the company's history, reinforcing near-term support for the stock price.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.5% to 3.75% Amid Highest Dissent Since 1992

The Federal Open Market Committee voted on April 29 to maintain the benchmark federal funds rate at its current range of 3.5 to 3.75 percent, marking the third consecutive hold in 2026. The decision came with an 11-to-1 vote on the formal policy statement, but the broader meeting was distinguished by four dissenting members on internal guidance, the highest level of internal division within the Fed since 1992. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed he intends to remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors past the expiration of his chairmanship, despite ongoing political pressure from the Trump administration to vacate the seat. Powell has consistently asserted that Federal Reserve independence is non-negotiable and that he cannot legally be removed before his governor term expires.

The rate hold was universally anticipated by markets, but the depth of internal dissent signals a growing philosophical divide over the timing and scope of future cuts. With inflation remaining elevated and Q1 GDP growth printing at 2.0 percent, Fed hawks are increasingly resistant to any easing cycle while price pressures persist. For investors, Powell's confirmation that he will stay on the board removes one layer of institutional uncertainty, even as questions mount about the direction of monetary policy under his eventual successor. The Fed's credibility as an independent institution remains a critical variable for fixed income markets, the dollar, and risk appetite broadly, and any further politicization of the central bank could introduce additional volatility across asset classes.

US GDP Rebounds to 2.0% Annual Growth in Q1 2026 But Signals Mixed

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate on April 30 showing that real gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026, a significant rebound from the 0.5 percent pace recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The headline figure missed the consensus economist forecast of 2.3 percent but nonetheless marked the strongest quarterly reading in three periods. Growth was driven by increases in investment, exports, consumer spending, and government expenditures. Imports, which subtract from GDP, also rose during the quarter. The GDP price index, a broad measure of inflation within the economy, firmed during the period, reinforcing the stagflationary tension between cooling growth and persistent price pressures.

Analysts cautioned that the headline improvement flatters the underlying picture. A meaningful share of the acceleration over Q4 2025 was attributable to the reversal of federal nondefense compensation that had collapsed during a late-2025 government shutdown, as well as elevated defense spending tied to geopolitical engagements in the Middle East. Stripping out those mechanical factors, underlying private-sector momentum appeared considerably softer. Consumer spending decelerated relative to the prior quarter, and analysts at several research firms noted that the advance estimate is subject to material revision when the BEA releases its second estimate approximately one month from now. For investors, the 2.0 percent print keeps the soft-landing narrative intact on the surface while leaving the Federal Reserve with little room to pivot toward rate cuts given elevated inflation within the same report.

Google Cloud Revenue Surges 63% to $20 Billion as Alphabet Tops Estimates

Alphabet Inc. reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $109.9 billion on April 29, a 22 percent increase from the prior-year period and the company's 11th consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth. The result exceeded the CNBC-tracked analyst consensus of $107.2 billion. The standout figure was Google Cloud, which generated $20.03 billion in revenue, up 63% year-over-year, with the division's backlog nearly doubling to over $462 billion. Diluted earnings per share reached $5.11, an 82 percent increase compared to the same quarter last year. Net income hit $62.57 billion, though it included a significant gain from equity securities. CEO Sundar Pichai credited accelerating enterprise adoption of AI infrastructure as the primary growth driver, and the company raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to as much as $190 billion, with plans to increase spending further in 2027.

The Cloud results positioned Alphabet favorably against both Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services, with analysts at CNBC noting that Google Cloud growth outpaced both rivals in the quarter even as all three companies beat revenue estimates on AI-related demand. For investors, the 63% Cloud growth rate is particularly significant because it indicates that Alphabet is gaining market share in enterprise AI infrastructure, a segment that analysts broadly view as the primary battleground for long-term tech platform dominance. The company's willingness to commit up to $190 billion in capex reflects confidence in sustained demand but will also be closely scrutinized for returns on that investment. Alphabet shares rallied meaningfully following the report, contributing to a broader technology sector advance that carried the Nasdaq Composite toward record territory.

Elon Musk Concludes Testimony in Landmark Trial Against OpenAI and Sam Altman

Elon Musk wrapped up three days of testimony on April 30 in the federal trial he initiated against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and the company's transition from a nonprofit to a for-profit entity. Musk, who co-founded OpenAI in 2015 alongside Altman and others, claims that Altman and the organization's leadership violated the foundational nonprofit charter under which Musk contributed approximately $38 million between December 2015 and May 2017. Testifying in U.S. District Court in Oakland, California, Musk alleged that by late 2022 he had concluded Altman was attempting to effectively convert a charitable organization into a private commercial enterprise. "It turned out to be true," Musk told the court when asked about his concerns. The trial, which opened April 28, is expected to run approximately three weeks, with Altman himself expected to testify as a key witness.

The case carries substantial implications for the broader AI industry and for the regulatory and governance frameworks around artificial intelligence development. OpenAI is currently valued at $852 billion and has attracted billions in investment from Microsoft and a range of institutional backers following its evolution toward a capped-profit structure. A ruling in Musk's favor could require structural changes to how OpenAI operates or distributes profits, while a loss would validate the existing governance model that many AI labs are watching closely. For investors with exposure to Microsoft, which holds a significant stake in OpenAI, and for those tracking Musk's own AI venture xAI, the trial's outcome could reshape competitive dynamics in a sector that is increasingly central to enterprise technology spending and market valuations globally.​

Major Earnings

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) – April 30, 2026, After Market Close

Financial Trends: Rivian posted Q1 2026 revenue of $1.38B (+11% YoY) with a GAAP EPS beat of -$0.33 vs. the -$0.72 consensus, while annual revenue consensus for FY2026 is projected near $6.2B as the R2 ramp accelerates.


Strategic Initiatives: The company has commenced R2 production at its Normal, IL facility with external customer deliveries imminent, backed by a 50,000-unit Uber robotaxi agreement and up to $2.5B from the Volkswagen joint venture.


Key Metrics: Investors will track Q2 vehicle deliveries toward the 62,000–67,000 full-year guidance range, R2 average transaction prices, software & services revenue growth (up 49% YoY in Q1), and Adjusted EBITDA margin trajectory.


Progress: Rivian achieved its first full-year positive gross profit in 2025 ($144M), expanded Georgia plant capacity to 300,000 vehicles annually, and secured a $4.5B DOE loan with the first advance expected in early 2027.


Focus Areas: Analysts will watch R2 external delivery volumes, Q2 cash burn (operating cash outflow was -$703M in Q1), progress toward positive Adjusted EBITDA by Q4 2026, and any updates on the robotaxi software stack with Uber.


Risks Potential: Execution risk on the R2 production ramp, elevated cash burn (~$703M operating outflow in Q1), a 33.5% market-implied bankruptcy probability, and EV demand sensitivity to tariff-driven consumer uncertainty are key headwinds.


Concerns: Adjusted EBITDA deteriorated 43.5% YoY to -$472M in Q1, and street consensus prices the stock at $18.16 against a backdrop of a 24% YTD decline and ongoing losses expected through at least FY2028.


Market Trends: The broader EV market faces demand headwinds from potential loss of federal tax credits and tariff pressures, while Rivian's software-and-services pivot mirrors an industry shift toward higher-margin recurring revenue to offset thin automotive margins.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) – July 22, 2026, After Market Close

Financial Trends: Tesla reported Q1 2026 revenue of $22.39B (+16% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 (a 52% YoY increase), with FY2026 annual revenue consensus near $100.7B and EPS consensus around $2.56 per share.


Strategic Initiatives: CEO Elon Musk is pivoting Tesla's growth narrative toward robotaxis (Austin, TX launch anticipated mid-2026), the Optimus humanoid robot, and in-house AI semiconductor development, with $25B+ in capex earmarked for 2026.


Key Metrics: Investors will focus on automotive gross margin (excluding credits), Q2 vehicle deliveries vs. estimates, energy storage deployment volumes, robotaxi operational updates, and free cash flow relative to the elevated capex guide.


Progress: Auto gross margins (ex-credits) improved sequentially from 17.9% to 19.2% in Q1; energy storage gross margins reached 39.5%; and EMEA deliveries surged 150%+ QoQ in Q1, with order backlog at the highest Q1 level in two years.


Focus Areas: Analysts will scrutinize Q2 delivery volumes for bounce-back from the Q1 50,000-unit build-vs-delivery gap, robotaxi revenue timing, Optimus production targets, and whether one-time benefits (warranty true-downs, tariff credits) distorted Q1 margins.


Risks Potential: Tesla faces ongoing brand damage from Musk's political visibility, intensifying competition from BYD and Chinese EV makers, $25B+ capex pressuring free cash flow, tariff uncertainty on supply chains, and a potential 11% YoY auto revenue decline as a base-case risk.


Concerns: Q1 revenue of $22.39B missed the $22.6B Wall Street consensus, global vehicle inventory rose to 27 days of supply (from 15), and FY2026 EPS consensus of ~$2.56 reflects a -24.8% decline versus FY2025—dampening near-term sentiment.


Market Trends: The global EV market is bifurcating between premium/autonomous-capable platforms (Tesla's positioning) and affordable mass-market EVs (BYD's strength), while investor sentiment on Tesla increasingly trades on AI and robotics optionality rather than core automotive fundamentals.

Meet Evan Buenger

Evan Buenger, Editor of the Bull and Bear Brief

From a young age, Evan was fascinated by the stock market. At just 11 years old, he received a Wall Street Journal subscription for his birthday, sparking a lifelong passion for investing. Evan spent his formative years studying the strategies and philosophies of legendary investors like Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, and George Soros, absorbing their wisdom and developing his own unique approach to the markets.

As Evan's knowledge grew, he began to incorporate the time-tested, technically-based strategies of trading legends like William O'Neil and Richard Wyckoff into his own investment framework. By borrowing elements from each and rigorously testing them in real-time, Evan created a powerful conglomerate strategy that encompasses fundamentals, technicals, and macroeconomics.

Today, Evan is a professional trader and was a top contender in the 2020 US Investing Championship. His extraordinary performance, with a 141.8% return, is a testament to his studious background, well-informed approach, and unwavering dedication to his craft.

At the core of Evan's strategy is identifying stocks that benefit from sector trends and rotation. By combining fundamental analysis with a focus on relative strength and advanced technical analysis techniques, Evan is able to identify the stocks that are most likely to move higher or lower over the intermediate term.

While he keeps a close eye on macroeconomic trends, his willingness to adapt to changing market conditions, as well as his developed ability to know when to and not to act in a fast-moving market, is what sets him apart. Evan has consistently demonstrated his ability to navigate even the most challenging investment environments. His impressive track record and unique perspective make him a valuable voice in the world of finance, and he is thrilled to have the opportunity to share his insights and expertise with subscribers of the Bull and Bear Brief.

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