Nvidia has ceased production of its H20 artificial intelligence chip for the Chinese market following directives from Beijing, which urged local companies not to purchase the product due to security concerns. The H20 chip, which had previously won U.S. export approval under the Trump administration with a requirement for 15% of sales revenue to be paid to the U.S. government, became the center of cross-border tensions after Chinese authorities questioned its potential for remote access—a claim Nvidia denies. As a result, Chinese firms halted orders, amplifying the ongoing technology trade dispute ahead of Nvidia’s anticipated second-quarter earnings release on August 27.

In response to the setback, Nvidia and its partners are seeking approval to market alternative chips using its Blackwell architecture in China, offering somewhat reduced performance to comply with U.S. export restrictions while still outperforming domestic competitors. CEO Jensen Huang recently confirmed that discussions with U.S. officials are ongoing, though final decisions are pending. Analysts estimate Chinese companies have over $15 billion to spend on high-end AI chips this year, underlining China’s significance to Nvidia’s growth prospects even as its market share there trails the U.S., Singapore, and Taiwan. For now, the company has told major partners like Taiwan Semiconductor to pause H20 production and shift focus to next-generation products, leaving Nvidia’s future in China uncertain as both nations weigh economic interests and security risks.

Major Japanese car manufacturers, including Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, have denied raising vehicle prices in the United States as a result of the Trump administration’s tariffs. The automakers responded to recent reports, including a Nikkei Asia article, which suggested that some tariff expenses were being passed to U.S. consumers. Toyota clarified to CNBC that its July price increases reflected routine operational cost adjustments—not tariffs—and affirmed its commitment to keeping vehicles affordable amid ongoing trade negotiations. Honda and Nissan echoed this stance, attributing price changes to added features and local production strategies, respectively.

The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles in April, later reduced to 15% following a new trade agreement in July. Toyota estimated the U.S. tariffs would impact its earnings by 450 billion yen (approximately $3.03 billion) in the first quarter, with a potential full-year effect of 1.4 trillion yen. Honda highlighted its performance in the Cars.com American-Made Index as a factor in avoiding tariff-related price increases, while Nissan emphasized leveraging American manufacturing to offset additional costs. All three automakers pledged to maintain competitive pricing and closely monitor the evolving trade landscape.

OpenAI, maker of the ChatGPT artificial intelligence platform, has issued a stark warning to its investors regarding the high risks involved in backing the company. According to a recent statement on OpenAI’s website and comments by CEO Sam Altman, investors could lose their total investment or see no returns in a future where artificial general intelligence (AGI) becomes reality. Altman suggested that the AI industry may be experiencing a speculative bubble, noting, “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes.” OpenAI recently completed a $40 billion funding round from SoftBank at a $300 billion valuation, and its employees are reportedly seeking to sell $6 billion in shares at a $500 billion valuation.

In interviews, Altman added that the foundational AI models powering technologies like ChatGPT may have reached saturation for certain use cases, casting doubt on future performance improvements. He remarked, “The models have already saturated the chat use case. They're not going to get much better… And maybe they're going to get worse.” The article also highlights ongoing debate within the industry about when AGI might be achieved, with predictions ranging from the next year to up to a decade away. Despite the company’s rapid valuation growth, OpenAI stresses that the future of investment in an AGI-driven world remains highly unpredictable and fraught with uncertainty.

A new study led by Professor Elizabeth Holley of the Colorado School of Mines reveals that vast quantities of valuable elements—including enough lithium to power 10 million electric vehicles annually—are currently discarded as waste by U.S. mining operations. The research, published in the journal Science, examined 54 active mines and identified significant amounts of lithium, manganese, and other critical minerals left unused. This potential dwarfs both the United States’ current demand and import levels for these materials, essential for manufacturing lithium-ion batteries and other clean energy technologies. The push for domestic mineral sourcing has intensified, with policymakers such as President Donald Trump issuing executive orders to boost extraction and reduce reliance on foreign supply amid escalating global competition.

The study suggests that even modest recovery rates—such as reclaiming just 1% of byproducts—could substantially reduce U.S. dependence on imports, while 4% recovery of lithium could eliminate it entirely. Industry experts highlight economic, technical, and regulatory challenges in implementing byproduct recovery, emphasizing the need for innovative strategies and increased government support. Recent pilot programs and investments, including a $400 million Pentagon stake in America’s only rare-earth mine, signal a shift toward addressing these issues. Researchers hope their findings will guide targeted efforts to identify the most promising sites, with Holley noting that developing effective recovery methods could reshape the future of U.S. mineral policy and the global supply chain.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz candidly acknowledged that Germany’s economic difficulties are proving far tougher to resolve than initially anticipated, declaring the country is not merely experiencing a downturn but a deep “structural crisis” in its economy. In a recent speech in Osnabrueck, Merz pointed to persistently high energy costs—exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and the ongoing impact of US trade tariffs as key factors undermining Germany’s industrial strength. New data revealed the German economy contracted in the second quarter more than previously estimated, while iconic manufacturers like Volkswagen reported steep earnings drops, signaling widespread competitiveness issues across several sectors. “Large parts of our economy are no longer truly competitive and that’s a question of price competitiveness,” Merz observed, stressing that the underlying conditions have been inadequate for a decade.

Since taking office, Merz has launched sweeping reforms, including efforts to cut red tape, update infrastructure, and boost domestic demand, backed by plans for hundreds of billions of euros in investment. He also emphasized new tax incentives for businesses and reiterated his opposition to raising taxes on medium-sized companies during his address to the Christian Democratic Union in Lower Saxony. Merz conceded that US-imposed 15% tariffs on German exports will weigh heavily on the economy, though he warned a full trade war would be even more damaging. Despite these challenges, Merz remains focused on modernizing Germany for longer-term competitiveness, while urging both government and industry leaders to recognize and address the scale of the country’s economic issues.

This chart spotlights Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH), a diversified healthcare services and products company, operating across pharmaceutical distribution and medical supply solutions. Renowned for its expansive reach, Cardinal serves pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics nationwide.

Amid persistent industry headwinds, CAH has routinely outperformed most healthcare peers over the past year. The stock recently encountered resistance at its 21-day and 50-day moving averages, yet the 200-day mark has held firm, highlighting crucial momentum trends. Notably, following a sharp earnings-related gap-down, CAH exhibited impressive resilience, quickly regaining a majority of those lost gains and demonstrating robust relative strength. Even as the broader sector faltered, CAH consistently held critical support around $148, with notable institutional accumulation reinforcing that floor and staving off deeper declines, hinting at potential upside ahead. Consequently, CAH’s twelve-month trajectory now places it in the top third of sector performers, which is no small feat given the challenging backdrop.

Looking ahead, management projects an assertive 11.7% revenue uplift for 2026, paired with a strong 20.9% jump in earnings — emphasizing operational execution regardless of external noise. Should healthcare equities regain favor, Cardinal Health is well positioned as a high-momentum candidate, offering both stability and attractive upside within the space.

Financial Trends: Analysts expect $45.9 billion in Q2 revenue and $1.02 EPS, driven by massive AI infrastructure demand despite facing an $8 billion H20 revenue loss from China export restrictions affecting fiscal 2026 performance.

Strategic Initiatives: NVIDIA is scaling Blackwell architecture deployments with GB200 systems while expanding AI inference capabilities through partnerships and DGX Cloud services to maintain dominance in the AI computing ecosystem.

Key Metrics: Investors will focus on data center revenue trends, Blackwell production ramp metrics, gross margin recovery toward mid-70% targets, and guidance for overcoming China-related headwinds.

Progress: The company has achieved record quarterly revenues of $44.1 billion in Q1 2026 with Blackwell contributing nearly 70% of data center compute sales as the Hopper-to-Blackwell transition nears completion.

Focus Areas: Management will likely address Blackwell supply chain scaling, sovereign AI opportunities offsetting China losses, and the timeline for achieving targeted gross margins amid export control challenges.

Risks Potential: Geopolitical tensions with China, potential supply constraints for Blackwell production, and competitive pressure from emerging AI chip alternatives remain key concerns for sustained growth.

Concerns: The $10.5 billion combined revenue loss from H20 restrictions in Q1 and Q2 fiscal 2026 creates uncertainty about maintaining growth momentum despite strong underlying demand.

Market Trends: The AI infrastructure boom continues driving unprecedented demand for GPU accelerators, with inference token generation surging 10x year-over-year as enterprises build AI-powered applications at scale.

Financial Trends: Analysts project continued growth with fiscal 2026 product revenue guidance of $4.325 billion representing 25% growth, supported by consistent 26% quarterly growth rates and improving operating margins.

Strategic Initiatives: The company is advancing its AI Data Cloud strategy through Cortex AISQL, Snowflake Intelligence, and expanded partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic to democratize AI capabilities within enterprise data workflows.

Key Metrics: Watch for product revenue growth rates, net revenue retention (currently 124%), customer expansion metrics, and progress toward the 8% non-GAAP operating margin target for fiscal 2026.

Progress: Snowflake reached 606 customers with $1+ million annual revenue and 754 Forbes Global 2000 customers while maintaining strong remaining performance obligations of $6.7 billion with 50% recognizable within 12 months.

Focus Areas: Management will emphasize AI integration milestones, consumption-based pricing model resilience, and the company's positioning within the projected $342 billion total addressable market by 2028.

Risks Potential: Intense competition from AWS, Databricks, and Google Cloud, potential economic headwinds affecting enterprise spending, and execution challenges in scaling AI capabilities across diverse customer needs.

Concerns: Net revenue retention has gradually declined from 129% to 124%, and adjusted free cash flow margins compressed from 44% to 20% year-over-year, signaling potential customer optimization trends.

Market Trends: Enterprise AI adoption is accelerating data cloud demand as organizations prioritize integrated data and AI strategies, with Snowflake benefiting from the shift toward consumption-based pricing models.

Financial Trends: Wall Street expects $1.22 EPS for Q2 2026 (down 8.96% year-over-year) with fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.15-$6.30, reflecting ongoing pressure from tariffs and consumer electronics headwinds.

Strategic Initiatives: The company is implementing AI-powered customer support through partnerships with Google Cloud while scaling Best Buy Marketplace and Best Buy Ads as incremental profit streams beyond traditional retail.

Key Metrics: Comparable sales trends, operating margin sustainability around 4.2%, and progress on new revenue streams including marketplace commissions and advertising revenues will be key investor focus areas.

Progress: Best Buy delivered Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.15 (beating $1.09 estimates) while managing through a 0.7% comparable sales decline and maintaining operational efficiency amid challenging conditions.

Focus Areas: Management will address tariff mitigation strategies, AI integration with Geek Squad services evolution, and omnichannel retail execution including buy-online-pickup-in-store performance and marketplace development.

Risks Potential: Continued tariff pressures on imported electronics, consumer discretionary spending weakness, competitive pressure from online retailers, and execution risks in transitioning to AI-enhanced service models.

Concerns: Revenue guidance was lowered to $41.1-$41.9 billion from prior $41.4-$42.2 billion expectations, with comparable sales guidance reduced to -1.0% to +1.0% reflecting tariff impact uncertainty.

Market Trends: Consumer electronics demand remains challenged by economic uncertainty, though the company benefits from AI technology adoption trends and the ongoing shift toward services-based revenue models.

From a young age, Evan was fascinated by the stock market. At just 11 years old, he received a Wall Street Journal subscription for his birthday, sparking a lifelong passion for investing. Evan spent his formative years studying the strategies and philosophies of legendary investors like Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, and George Soros, absorbing their wisdom and developing his own unique approach to the markets.

As Evan's knowledge grew, he began to incorporate the time-tested, technically-based strategies of trading legends like William O'Neil and Richard Wyckoff into his own investment framework. By borrowing elements from each and rigorously testing them in real-time, Evan created a powerful conglomerate strategy that encompasses fundamentals, technicals, and macroeconomics.

Today, Evan is a professional trader and was a top contender in the 2020 US Investing Championship. His extraordinary performance, with a 141.8% return, is a testament to his studious background, well-informed approach, and unwavering dedication to his craft.

At the core of Evan's strategy is identifying stocks that benefit from sector trends and rotation. By combining fundamental analysis with a focus on relative strength and advanced technical analysis techniques, Evan is able to identify the stocks that are most likely to move higher or lower over the intermediate term.

While he keeps a close eye on macroeconomic trends, his willingness to adapt to changing market conditions, as well as his developed ability to know when to and not to act in a fast-moving market, is what sets him apart. Evan has consistently demonstrated his ability to navigate even the most challenging investment environments. His impressive track record and unique perspective make him a valuable voice in the world of finance, and he is thrilled to have the opportunity to share his insights and expertise with subscribers of the Bull and Bear Brief.