
Market’s Week in Review
April 4-April 10, 2025
Short-Term ETF Price Targets
ETF | Short-Term Target |
---|---|
SPY | $506 |
QQQ | $422 |
Week’s Market Performance
Index | Current Level | Percent Change: Week | Percent Change: Year-to-Date |
---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | 5,268.06 | +3.82% | -10.43% |
NASDAQ | 18,343.57 | +5.44% | -12.70% |
VIX | 40.71 | +10.13% | +128.58% |
10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.39% | +10.26% | -3.87% |
Gold | $3,177.5 | +4.77% | +20.27% |
Oil | $60.07 | -3.10% | -16.24% |
Market News
S&P 500 Tumbles 3.5% After US-China Feud Heats Up
The S&P 500 index plummeted 4.4% on Thursday, closing at 5,268 points, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China sent shockwaves through financial markets. The drop was triggered by China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods amid fears that the Trump administration might delist Chinese firms from U.S. exchanges, a move that could disrupt billions in cross-border investments. The sell-off erased over a trillion dollars in market value, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 2.56% and oil prices dipping to about $60 per barrel as economic angst gripped Wall Street.
The market turmoil was compounded by President Trump’s renewed rhetoric against foreign ownership of U.S. companies, specifically targeting United States Steel Corp.’s potential acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel. Treasury yields fell slightly to 4.39% as investors paused their sell-off of Treasurys, while the U.S. dollar weakened 1.98% against the yen. Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that prolonged tensions could shave 0.5% off U.S. GDP growth in 2025, underscoring the high stakes of the trade war’s escalation.enging decades of U.S.-led free trade norms, per the New York Times.
ECB Considers Rate Cut Amid Trade War
The European Central Bank (ECB) signaled a potential interest rate cut on Thursday, as the US-China trade war threatened eurozone growth. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn noted that trade disruptions had cut Germany’s industrial output by 1.8% year-over-year, strengthening the case for a 25-basis-point reduction to the current 3.5% deposit rate. Inflation, hovering at 2.3%, remained above the ECB’s 2% target, complicating the decision.
The ECB’s deliberations followed a 1.5% drop in the Euro Stoxx 50 index over the week, as exports to China—8% of EU GDP—faltered. Analysts at ING Bank predicted a 60% chance of a cut at the April 17 meeting, citing the need to bolster liquidity amid a projected 0.9% GDP growth rate for 2025. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-driven approach, but markets priced in a dovish shift, pushing the euro down 0.8% to $1.06.
Blackstone: Plans $11 Billion European Property Buying Spree
Blackstone unveiled an $11 billion European real estate push on Monday, funded by $8 billion from its Europe VII fund and $3 billion in loans. Targeting logistics and rentals in London, Berlin, and Madrid, the firm snapped up a €1.2 billion Prologis portfolio on April 9, betting on a 20% e-commerce-driven warehouse boom since 2023.
CEO Stephen Schwarzman touted the move, projecting a 6% annualized return through 2030. With property prices up 7% year-over-year, CBRE flagged overheating risks, but Blackstone’s $65 billion global real estate portfolio—up 10% since 2024—bolsters its bet. The firm aims to close $5 billion more in deals by June.
United States Steel Corp.: Trump Opposes Japanese Ownership
United States Steel Corp. faced a political firestorm on Tuesday as President Trump vowed to block its $14.9 billion sale to Japan’s Nippon Steel, citing national security. Trump’s stance, aired at a Pittsburgh rally, tanked U.S. Steel’s stock 6% to $38, despite Nippon’s pledge to invest $2.7 billion in U.S. plants. The deal, announced in 2024, awaits CFIUS approval.
The steelmaker, producing 11 million tons annually, saw Q1 2025 profits dip 8% to $171 million amid trade war tariffs. Trump’s threat—backed by a 25% steel tariff—could force U.S. Steel to seek domestic buyers, with Cleveland-Cliffs eyeing a $10 billion counterbid. Analysts see a 40% chance the deal unravels by June.
CarMax Inc.: Adjusts Goals Amid Trade War Uncertainty
CarMax Inc. revised its 2025 targets on Wednesday, cutting used-car sales projections by 5% to 750,000 units as US-China trade tensions roiled auto markets. The retailer, posting $6.2 billion in Q1 revenue (down 3% year-over-year), blamed a 10% supply chain cost hike from tariffs. Shares fell 4% to $72.
Despite a 7% gross margin on its 50,000-car inventory, CarMax delayed three store openings to 2026, focusing instead on its $500 million online platform, which drove 15% of sales. CEO Bill Nash vowed resilience, but J.D. Power analysts warned that a prolonged trade war could cut U.S. auto demand by 8% in 2025.
Editor’s Chart of the Day

The above graph from Yahoo Finance shows the dates when each tariff increase on China was announced. President Trump has been hiking tariffs dramatically in historic fashion to increase pressure on China to make a trade deal and reduce the trade deficit that the U.S. has with the country. It is possible that the radically increased tariffs will majorly disrupt world supply chains and could potentially cause a recession.
Major Earnings
Goldman Sachs (GS) - April 14, Before Market Open
Goldman Sachs reported robust 2024 performance with net revenues of $53.51 billion and net earnings of $14.28 billion. It holds the #1 spot in M&A advising and leads in equities, bolstered by its Asset & Wealth Management division managing $3.1 trillion. Durable revenue from consumer banking and wealth management makes up 70% of total revenues. The "One Goldman Sachs" strategy enhances client service integration across divisions. The new Capital Solutions Group aims to expand in private markets and credit. However, macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory pressures could hinder future profitability. Investors should track the Capital Solutions Group’s progress and interest rate impacts.
American Express (AXP) - April 17, Before Market Open
American Express saw Q1 2024 net income rise 34% to $2.4 billion and EPS jump 39% to $3.33. Its closed-loop model, controlling both issuing and network operations, targets affluent customers with premium cards like Platinum. Analysts predict a Q2 2024 EPS of $3.23, slightly below Q1. Rising delinquencies signal potential credit risks. Competition from Visa and Mastercard could pressure market share. AXP’s resilience in past downturns is a strength, but consumer spending trends bear watching. Investors should focus on delinquency rates and premium cardholder retention.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) - April 17, Before Market Open
TSMC projects Q1 2025 revenues of $25 billion to $25.8 billion, with gross margins of 57% to 59%. Its $38 billion to $42 billion 2025 capex targets 3nm and 2nm chip advancements. AI accelerator revenue, a mid-teens share in 2024, is set to double in 2025. It dominates advanced semiconductor production for clients like Nvidia and Apple. However, U.S.-China geopolitical tensions pose risks. The industry’s cyclical nature contributed to an 11.66% EPS drop over the past year. Investors should monitor fab expansions and AI demand updates.
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