ETF | Short-Term Target |
---|---|
SPY | $480 |
QQQ | $395 |
Index | Current Level | Percent Change: Week | Percent Change: Year-to-Date |
---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | 5,363.45 | +5.7% | -8.81% |
NASDAQ | 18,690.05 | +7.43% | -11.05% |
VIX | 37.55 | -17.11% | +115.93% |
10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.49% | +12.69% | -1.75% |
Gold | $3,244.6 | +6.89% | +22.85% |
Oil | $61.50 | +0.79% | -14.25% |
Reuters reported on Friday that Trump’s trade team, led by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, is targeting 90 trade deals in 90 days to offset the trade war’s economic damage. The ambitious plan seeks bilateral agreements with nations like Japan, the UK, and smaller economies in Africa and Southeast Asia, aiming to reduce reliance on China. The initiative follows months of tariff-driven market chaos, with the administration touting it as a bold countermeasure.
Experts, however, question its feasibility, with one telling Reuters, “This is a publicity stunt, not a serious trade policy.” Negotiating even one deal typically takes months, and the tight timeline has drawn skepticism. While some countries are eager for US market access, the article suggests the plan may prioritize political optics over substantive economic gains, leaving its success in doubt.
On Saturday, Reuters reported that President Trump has exempted smartphones, computers, and other electronics from the latest China tariffs, offering relief to tech firms and consumers. Backdated to April 5, the decision eases fears of price hikes and supply chain disruptions, following intense lobbying from the tech sector. An analyst remarked, “This is a large hole in the US tariff wall that will spare key firms like Apple and consumers from sticker shock.”
However, the exemption doesn’t cover all Chinese imports, with many goods still facing steep tariffs. The move has sparked debate about the consistency of Trump’s trade strategy, with critics arguing it undermines his hardline stance. The tech industry welcomed the reprieve, but broader trade tensions persist, casting uncertainty over future policy.
Reuters reported on Thursday that Wall Street ended a volatile week with a sharp rally, as Federal Reserve comments calmed markets. The S&P 500 rose over 3% after Boston Fed President Susan Collins assured readiness to act if needed, countering trade war jitters. Strong bank earnings also fueled the rebound, offering a respite from weeks of tariff-driven turmoil.
A trader told Reuters, “The Fed’s comments were a game-changer. It gave the market the reassurance it needed to bounce back.” However, the article cautions that unresolved trade issues could quickly reverse gains, with the market’s stability hanging in the balance as the trade war’s broader impact looms large.
Yahoo! Finance reported on Sunday that Apple and Nvidia secured exemptions from Trump’s China tariffs on electronics, including smartphones and computers. Backdated to April 5, the decision spares these tech giants from cost increases, boosting their shares after intense industry lobbying. The exemption reflects the administration’s recognition of the tech sector’s economic weight amid the trade war.
While profit margins benefit, some components remain tariffed, and the broader conflict persists. An analyst noted, “This is a win for Apple and Nvidia, but it’s not a complete victory. The trade war is still a wildcard.” The move has eased immediate pressures but leaves questions about long-term stability in tech supply chains.
Reuters reported on Saturday that Binance is negotiating a deal with a Trump-linked crypto firm while seeking to curb US regulatory oversight. Sources say the exchange, already under scrutiny for money laundering and tax issues, wants clauses to minimize US jurisdiction exposure. The talks aim to either acquire or partner with the firm, raising concerns about political influence in the crypto market.
A source told Reuters, “Binance is trying to structure the deal to keep US regulators at arm’s length. They’re walking a fine line.” The early-stage discussions highlight Binance’s strategic maneuvering amid a shifting regulatory landscape, though the deal’s outcome and implications remain uncertain.
Bloomberg reported on Thursday that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closed 90 basis points above its NAV on April 9, after surging 10.5%—its biggest jump in 16 years. The dislocation, tied to Trump’s 90-day tariff pause announcement, reflected frantic trading as markets rallied. An expert noted, “Even the most liquid ETFs can experience dislocations in volatile times.”
The event raised concerns about ETF efficiency under stress, though it mirrored broader market relief. The article underscores the trade war’s profound impact on even the most stable financial instruments.
Consumer confidence in the United States is hitting multi-year lows in the weeks following President Donald Trump’s trade wars. This downturn is primarily driven by escalating trade war tensions and rising inflation fears, with consumer inflation expectations reaching 6% in February 2025. Public sentiment on social media appears to mirror this gloom, with some users labeling it a "deep depression" and voicing widespread economic concerns. The significant drop signals potential recession risks, as consumer spending, a key economic driver, may weaken further.
PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) - April 22, Before Market Open
PulteGroup (PHM) has shown strong financial performance, with a 35.28% year-over-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2024 and a 25.34% rise in net income for 2024. Revenue has remained steady above $16 billion, bolstered by a robust return on equity of 25.4% and net margins of 17.2%. Strategically, PHM is enhancing operational flexibility and pursuing strategic land investments, while reducing its debt-to-capital ratio to 16.5% and achieving a net debt-to-capital ratio of 1% by Q3 2023. The company aims to shorten cycle times to 100 days by early 2025 and continues share repurchases, signaling confidence in its outlook. Investors should watch for the impact of rising interest rates and affordability challenges on housing demand, as well as a decreasing backlog that may suggest slowing growth. Economic conditions and consumer sentiment will be key drivers in the upcoming earnings report.
ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) - April 23, After Market Close
ServiceNow (NOW) is likely focusing on growth by expanding its customer base and boosting subscription revenue in the cloud services market. The company may be investing in new product development and enhancing existing offerings to stay competitive. Investors should monitor key metrics like subscription revenue growth and operating margins, which indicate scalability and efficiency. Strategic initiatives could include partnerships or acquisitions to expand its service portfolio. Risks to watch include intensifying competition, economic downturns reducing IT spending, and rapid technological shifts affecting demand. The upcoming earnings report will reveal NOW’s ability to sustain growth and manage costs amid these challenges.
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) - April 24, Before Market Open
Southwest Airlines (LUV) is tackling airline industry challenges such as fuel price volatility, labor shortages, and shifting travel demand. The company is likely prioritizing cost management, route optimization, and customer experience improvements to maintain profitability. Key metrics to track include revenue passenger miles, load factor, and operating expenses, especially fuel costs. Strategic efforts may involve fleet modernization or new market expansion. Investors should note risks like economic downturns affecting travel demand, regulatory changes, and operational disruptions. The upcoming earnings report will shed light on LUV’s cost management and ability to leverage any travel demand recovery.
Become a paying subscriber of the Bull and Bear Brief: Stock Portfolio Recommendations Newsletter to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.