Market’s Week in Review

July 21-July 25, 2025

Short-Term ETF Price Targets

ETF

Short-Term Target

SPY

$632

QQQ

$558

Week’s Market Performance

Index

Current Level

Percent Change: Week

Percent Change: Year-to-Date

S&P 500

6,388.64

+1.46%

+8.62%

NASDAQ 100

23,272.25

+0.90%

+10.76%

VIX

14.93

-9.24%

-13.80%

10-Year Treasury Yield

4.39%

-0.70%

-4.02%

Gold

$3,337.59

-0.40%

+27.18%

Oil

$65.07

-3.62%

-9.36%

Market News

U.S. and European Union Forge New Trade Path Amid Tariff Tensions

In a significant development, President Donald Trump announced a new trade agreement with the European Union, which includes the imposition of 15% tariffs on certain goods. This announcement came after a crucial meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, held just before the August 1 deadline for tariff implementation. The deal aims to address longstanding trade imbalances and is expected to impact a wide range of industries, including automotive and agriculture. Both leaders expressed optimism about the agreement, with Trump stating it would "level the playing field" for American businesses.

The financial implications of this deal are multifaceted, potentially affecting market dynamics and investor sentiment. Analysts suggest that the 15% tariffs could lead to increased costs for European exporters, possibly resulting in higher prices for consumers. However, the agreement also opens up new opportunities for U.S. companies to increase their market share in Europe. This development is part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to renegotiate trade terms globally, which could have ripple effects on international trade policies and economic growth. Investors are advised to monitor these changes closely, as they could influence stock valuations and currency fluctuations in the coming months.

Boeing's Turnaround Gains Momentum Under CEO Ortberg

Boeing is poised to report a significant improvement in its financial performance, with Wall Street analysts forecasting the company will halve its second-quarter losses compared to the previous year. This anticipated recovery is largely attributed to the strategic leadership of CEO Ortberg, who has been actively addressing production and supply chain challenges. Boeing's shares have responded positively, reflecting investor confidence in the company's trajectory, with a recent uptick of 5% in anticipation of the earnings report. The earnings announcement, expected later this week, will provide further insights into Boeing's progress in stabilizing its operations and financial health.

Under Ortberg's leadership, Boeing has focused on streamlining its production processes and enhancing supply chain resilience, crucial steps in mitigating past disruptions. Analysts suggest that these efforts could lead to sustained profitability, provided the company continues to execute its strategic initiatives effectively. The broader aerospace market is also showing signs of recovery, which could bolster Boeing's commercial aircraft sales. However, challenges remain, including potential geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand in key markets. Investors will be closely monitoring Boeing's guidance for the remainder of the year, seeking assurance that the current momentum can be maintained.

U.S.-China Trade Talks Enter Critical Phase Amid Global Market Tensions

As the deadline set by President Trump for U.S.-China trade negotiations approaches, the global financial markets are on edge. The talks, which are expected to culminate this week, have significant implications for international trade dynamics and economic stability. With tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods at stake, the outcome could influence market sentiment across Europe and beyond. Investors are closely monitoring these developments, as any agreement or lack thereof could lead to fluctuations in stock indices and currency valuations worldwide.

The potential resolution or escalation of these trade discussions could have far-reaching effects on global supply chains and corporate earnings. Analysts suggest that a favorable outcome might boost investor confidence, leading to a rally in global equities, while a breakdown could trigger a risk-off sentiment. European markets, already grappling with Brexit uncertainties, may face additional volatility depending on the trade talks' outcome. Furthermore, sectors heavily reliant on international trade, such as technology and manufacturing, are likely to experience immediate impacts. Investors are advised to stay vigilant, as these negotiations could redefine economic relationships and market strategies.

China Unveils AI Strategy Amid Intensifying Global Tech Competition

China has announced a comprehensive global action plan for artificial intelligence, emphasizing the need for international collaboration in technology development and regulation. This strategic move, unveiled on Saturday, comes shortly after the United States released its own AI framework, highlighting the escalating race between the two superpowers in the tech domain. The Chinese plan outlines objectives to enhance AI capabilities, promote ethical standards, and foster cross-border partnerships. The initiative underscores China's ambition to position itself as a leader in AI, a sector projected to contribute significantly to global economic growth.

The timing of China's announcement suggests a strategic response to the U.S. plan, reflecting the geopolitical dimensions of technological advancement. Analysts note that China's focus on international cooperation could be an attempt to counterbalance U.S. influence and establish a more multipolar tech landscape. The plan's emphasis on ethical AI development aligns with global concerns about AI governance and its societal impacts. For investors and businesses, this development signals potential shifts in the regulatory environment and opportunities for cross-border collaborations in AI-driven industries. The unfolding scenario underscores the importance of monitoring policy changes and strategic partnerships in the AI sector.

Tesla's Robotaxi Ambitions Accelerate with California Expansion

Tesla is poised to broaden its autonomous vehicle horizons by introducing a 'friends and family' car service in California, as revealed by state regulators. This initiative marks a significant step from its current testing phase in Austin, Texas, where the company has been trialing its robotaxi technology. The California Public Utilities Commission disclosed that Tesla aims to deploy this service under a pilot program, potentially increasing its market presence in the autonomous vehicle sector. The move aligns with CEO Elon Musk's vision of a fully autonomous fleet, which he believes will revolutionize urban transportation.

The expansion into California, a major hub for technological innovation and a key market for electric vehicles, could provide Tesla with valuable data and insights to refine its autonomous driving systems. Analysts suggest that this strategic move may enhance Tesla's competitive edge against other companies like Waymo and Cruise, which are also vying for dominance in the robotaxi space. Furthermore, the pilot program could serve as a litmus test for regulatory acceptance and public perception of autonomous vehicles. If successful, Tesla's initiative may pave the way for broader adoption and commercialization of its robotaxi services, potentially boosting its revenue streams and solidifying its leadership in the autonomous vehicle industry.

Editor’s Chart of the Day

This chart displays The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB), a major energy infrastructure company that manages natural gas pipelines, processing plants, and midstream operations handling roughly one-third of America's natural gas supply. Despite recent sector-wide headwinds, WMB continues to outshine most of its energy peers. The stock currently sits just beneath its near-term trend indicators (the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) while holding above its long-term directional guide (the 200-day moving average). Throughout the energy sector's recent struggles, WMB has consistently found solid footing around the $57 support level - a critical support zone where institutional buyers have reliably emerged to halt further selling pressure. Following another test of this support area near its 200-day moving average mid-last week, the stock rebounded alongside broader energy names, though momentum faded as sector challenges persisted.

For years, The Williams Companies has distinguished itself as an energy sector leader, yet the entire energy investment landscape has faced significant headwinds recently due to abundant energy supplies. This reflects the ongoing difficulties that have weighed on energy investments since Covid-19 severely disrupted global energy markets, creating unprecedented volatility that has persisted for much of the past five years. Even amid this turbulent environment, company leadership maintains a positive outlook, forecasting robust 11.9% revenue expansion for 2025 and a healthy 14.6% earnings increase as operations continue benefiting from the post-pandemic demand recovery.

The Williams Companies warrants careful consideration should the energy sector begin outpacing the broader market, particularly if WMB can preserve its commanding sector leadership during these testing times for energy investors.

Major Earnings

Boeing Company (BA) – July 29, Before Market Open

Financial Trends: Boeing faces projected annual losses of -$2.71 per share in 2025 with expected revenue recovery to $85.2 billion, up 25.6% from 2024 amid production ramp-up challenges.

Strategic Initiatives: The company is divesting non-core digital assets for $10.55 billion while ramping 737 MAX production to 38 aircraft per month under strict FAA oversight and pursuing Spirit AeroSystems acquisition.

Key Metrics: Investors will focus on 737 MAX delivery rates, free cash flow trajectory, and progress toward the FAA-mandated Key Performance Indicators required for production increases beyond 38 aircraft monthly.

Progress: Boeing achieved its first month at 38 aircraft production rate in May 2025 and delivered 130 aircraft in Q1, exceeding internal targets while reducing deferred production costs.

Focus Areas: Management discussion will center on certification timelines for 737-7 and 737-10 variants, and the $1.05 trillion order backlog conversion amid ongoing safety improvements.

Risks Potential: Continued FAA production caps, supply chain disruptions, engine anti-ice system issues on newer variants, and potential tariff impacts on international deliveries remain material headwinds.

Concerns: Street expectations trail consensus with -$0.92 EPS estimate versus -$2.90 year-ago, while negative free cash flow of $2.3 billion in Q1 highlights ongoing financial pressure.

Market Trends: Global aerospace demand recovery and defense spending increases support long-term outlook, though Boeing trails Airbus in commercial market share amid heightened regulatory scrutiny.

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) – July 30, After Market Close

Financial Trends: Robinhood projects annual EPS growth to $1.31 in 2025 from $1.09 in 2024, supported by 50% Q1 revenue growth to $927 million and expanding market share in equities and options trading.

Strategic Initiatives: The company is aggressively expanding internationally to UK, Singapore, and Canada while launching Robinhood Strategies wealth management, prediction markets, and crypto tokenization services.

Key Metrics: Analysts will track Total Platform Assets growth, Funded Customer expansion from 25.8 million, Assets Under Custody trajectory, and Gold subscriber momentum reaching 2.6 million with 80% year-over-year growth.

Progress: Q1 2025 demonstrated strong execution with GAAP EPS of $0.37 beating estimates, record free cash flow of $631 million, and successful launch of new advisory and banking products.

Focus Areas: Earnings call will emphasize crypto expansion benefits, international licensing progress, tokenized stock rollout in Europe, and AI-powered Cortex investment tool adoption metrics.

Risks Potential: Regulatory investigations in Florida over PFOF practices, Lithuania's scrutiny of tokenized stocks, and potential SEC enforcement actions pose significant compliance and reputational risks.

Concerns: High valuation multiples at 77x forward P/E and dependence on volatile crypto markets, while Payment-for-Order-Flow model faces increasing regulatory pressure globally.

Market Trends: Rising fintech adoption and crypto integration drive sector growth, though increased competition from established players like Schwab and regulatory uncertainty around digital assets create headwinds.

Roblox Corporation (RBLX) – July 31, Before Market Open

Financial Trends: Roblox expects annual revenue growth to $5.43 billion in 2025 from $4.37 billion in 2024, though projected losses of -$1.38 per share reflect ongoing heavy investment in platform expansion.

Strategic Initiatives: The company is leveraging AI-driven content creation tools like Cube, expanding advertising integrations with major brands, and implementing advanced safety systems while pursuing older demographic growth.

Key Metrics: Investors will scrutinize Daily Active Users growth from 97.8 million in Q1, bookings trajectory, Average Revenue Per User improvements, and international expansion particularly in APAC markets.

Progress: Q1 2025 showed strong momentum with 29% revenue growth, 31% bookings increase, and record creator earnings of $281.6 million, while free cash flow surged 123% year-over-year.

Focus Areas: Management will address platform safety improvements, AI moderation scalability, advertising revenue ramp-up, and genre expansion success driving 69% increased Robux spending in targeted categories.

Risks Potential: Ongoing content moderation challenges with young user base, regulatory scrutiny over child safety protocols, and dependence on user-generated content create platform liability risks.

Concerns: High valuation metrics at 684% premium per analyst estimates and projected -$0.36 EPS decline versus prior year raise profitability timeline questions despite revenue growth.

Market Trends: Metaverse gaming market expansion toward $390.6 billion by 2032 and rising digital asset monetization support long-term growth, though intensifying competition from Meta and Unity pressures market share.

Meet Evan Buenger

Evan Buenger, Editor of the Bull and Bear Brief

From a young age, Evan was fascinated by the stock market. At just 11 years old, he received a Wall Street Journal subscription for his birthday, sparking a lifelong passion for investing. Evan spent his formative years studying the strategies and philosophies of legendary investors like Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, and George Soros, absorbing their wisdom and developing his own unique approach to the markets.

As Evan's knowledge grew, he began to incorporate the time-tested, technically-based strategies of trading legends like William O'Neil and Richard Wyckoff into his own investment framework. By borrowing elements from each and rigorously testing them in real-time, Evan created a powerful conglomerate strategy that encompasses fundamentals, technicals, and macroeconomics.

Today, Evan is a professional trader and was a top contender in the 2020 US Investing Championship. His extraordinary performance, with a 141.8% return, is a testament to his studious background, well-informed approach, and unwavering dedication to his craft.

At the core of Evan's strategy is identifying stocks that benefit from sector trends and rotation. By combining fundamental analysis with a focus on relative strength and advanced technical analysis techniques, Evan is able to identify the stocks that are most likely to move higher or lower over the intermediate term.

While he keeps a close eye on macroeconomic trends, his willingness to adapt to changing market conditions, as well as his developed ability to know when to and not to act in a fast-moving market, is what sets him apart. Evan has consistently demonstrated his ability to navigate even the most challenging investment environments. His impressive track record and unique perspective make him a valuable voice in the world of finance, and he is thrilled to have the opportunity to share his insights and expertise with subscribers of the Bull and Bear Brief.

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