Market’s Week in Review

July 14-July 18, 2025

Short-Term ETF Price Targets

ETF

Short-Term Target

SPY

$606

QQQ

$537

Week’s Market Performance

Index

Current Level

Percent Change: Week

Percent Change: Year-to-Date

S&P 500

6,296.79

+0.45%

+7.06%

NASDAQ 100

23,065.48

+0.92%

+9.77%

VIX

16.45

-4.36%

-5.02%

10-Year Treasury Yield

4.42%

-0.36%

-3.34%

Gold

$3,348.20

+0.16%

+27.58%

Oil

$67.38

+0.60%

-6.14%

Market News

Nvidia's Strategic Pivot: Resuming Chip Exports to China Amid AI Advancements

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has commended Chinese companies for their innovative AI models and open-source contributions, as the company prepares to resume chip exports to China. This development comes after a temporary halt due to U.S. export restrictions aimed at curbing China's access to advanced semiconductor technology. Nvidia's decision to restart exports is expected to significantly impact its revenue, given that China accounts for approximately 20% of its data center sales. Huang's remarks were made during a recent tech conference, highlighting the potential for collaboration and growth in the AI sector between the U.S. and China.

The resumption of chip exports to China could bolster Nvidia's financial performance, potentially offsetting the impact of U.S. regulatory pressures. Analysts suggest that this move may also enhance Nvidia's competitive position in the global AI market, as Chinese companies continue to advance their AI capabilities. However, the geopolitical landscape remains complex, and Nvidia must navigate potential future restrictions or policy changes. This strategic decision underscores the importance of balancing regulatory compliance with market opportunities, as Nvidia seeks to maintain its leadership in the semiconductor industry.

Meta's Legal Victory in AI Copyright Case Sets Precedent

Meta Platforms Inc. has successfully defended itself in a copyright lawsuit concerning its artificial intelligence model, as ruled by a federal judge. The case, which was closely watched by the tech and legal communities, concluded with the judge determining that Meta did not infringe on copyright laws. However, the ruling was not entirely in Meta's favor, as the judge noted that the decision does not prevent future lawsuits from being filed by other parties. This outcome highlights the ongoing legal complexities surrounding AI and intellectual property rights, which are becoming increasingly significant as AI technologies advance.

The implications of this ruling are substantial for both Meta and the broader tech industry. While Meta's immediate legal hurdle has been cleared, the judge's comments suggest that similar cases could arise, potentially leading to a wave of litigation in the AI sector. This uncertainty could impact how companies develop and deploy AI technologies, as they may need to reassess their legal strategies and risk management practices. For investors, this case underscores the importance of monitoring legal developments in the tech industry, as they can have significant financial and operational consequences. As AI continues to evolve, companies will need to navigate a complex landscape of intellectual property rights to protect their innovations and market positions.

Nvidia Eyes Robotics as Next Frontier Beyond AI

Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, highlighted robotics as a significant growth opportunity for the company during the recent annual shareholders meeting. Huang emphasized that while artificial intelligence has been a major driver of Nvidia's recent success, robotics represents a burgeoning market with substantial potential. The company has already made strides in this sector, with its chips being integral to various robotics applications, from autonomous vehicles to industrial automation. Nvidia's focus on robotics is part of its broader strategy to diversify its revenue streams and capitalize on emerging technological trends.

The shift towards robotics could have profound implications for Nvidia's financial performance and market positioning. As industries increasingly adopt automation, the demand for high-performance chips is expected to surge, potentially boosting Nvidia's revenues. Analysts suggest that Nvidia's expertise in AI gives it a competitive edge in developing sophisticated robotics solutions. This strategic move could also mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on AI-driven markets, providing a more balanced growth trajectory. Investors and stakeholders will be keenly watching how Nvidia leverages its technological prowess to capture market share in the expanding robotics sector.

OpenAI and Google Reassess Ties Amid Scale AI's Meta Partnership

OpenAI is strategically winding down its collaboration with Scale AI, a prominent AI data preparation startup, following a significant investment from Meta. This decision comes as Scale AI's founder, Alexandr Wang, transitions to Meta, leading their AI initiatives. OpenAI has been gradually distancing itself from Scale AI over the past six to twelve months, seeking data partners more aligned with the latest AI model requirements. Despite Meta's recent $14.3 billion investment for a 49% stake in Scale AI, OpenAI asserts that this partnership did not influence its decision. Concurrently, Google is reportedly severing its ties with Scale AI, reflecting a broader industry shift in response to Meta's aggressive AI expansion.

The implications of these developments are profound for the AI landscape, as major players like OpenAI and Google recalibrate their partnerships to maintain competitive edges. Meta's substantial investment and recruitment of Wang underscore its commitment to advancing AI capabilities, yet also highlight the intense rivalry for top talent and cutting-edge technology. OpenAI's pivot to other data providers suggests a strategic move to ensure its AI models remain at the forefront of innovation. Meanwhile, Google's silence on the matter indicates a cautious approach amid shifting alliances. As AI continues to be a focal point for tech giants, these strategic realignments could shape the future dynamics of AI development and collaboration.

London Stock Exchange Eyes Round-the-Clock Trading

The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) is contemplating the introduction of 24-hour trading, according to a report by the Financial Times. This move would require significant technological upgrades and regulatory adjustments to accommodate continuous trading. The initiative aims to address liquidity issues that are currently concentrated during the opening and closing auctions of the trading day. Additionally, the LSEG is considering the effects on companies with dual listings, which could face new challenges and opportunities in a 24-hour trading environment.

The potential shift to 24-hour trading could significantly alter the dynamics of global financial markets. Continuous trading might improve liquidity and offer investors more flexibility, but it could also lead to increased volatility and operational challenges. Market participants would need to adapt to a new trading schedule, potentially impacting trading strategies and risk management practices. Moreover, this change could prompt other major exchanges to consider similar moves, intensifying competition in the global trading landscape. As the LSEG explores this possibility, stakeholders will be closely monitoring developments for potential impacts on market efficiency and investor behavior.

Editor’s Chart of the Day

This chart shows Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG), a real estate investment trust that's performing better than most companies in its sector, even though the real estate industry has been facing challenges lately. The stock is currently trading just above its short-term trend lines (the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) but remains below its longer-term trend line (the 200-day moving average). During recent weakness in the real estate sector, SPG has repeatedly dropped down to test a key support level around $158—a price where buyers have consistently stepped in to prevent further declines. After touching this support area near its short-term moving averages early last week, the stock bounced higher along with other real estate stocks, though the rally stalled as sector-wide headwinds persisted.

Simon Property Group has been a standout performer in the real estate sector for many years, but the entire real estate investment space has struggled to gain traction recently. This reflects broader challenges that have plagued real estate investments since the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted commercial properties and created ongoing headwinds for the sector. Despite these challenges, company management remains optimistic about the future, projecting solid 4.7% revenue growth for 2025 and a robust 23.6% increase in earnings as the business continues recovering from the worst of the commercial real estate downturn.

Simon Property Group deserves close attention if the real estate sector begins to outperform the broader stock market, especially if SPG can maintain its leadership position within the sector during this challenging period.

Major Earnings

Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) – July 22, After Market Close

Financial Trends: Intuitive expects 2025 annual EPS of $7.82 versus $6.82 in 2024, with revenue projected at $9.66 billion representing continued double-digit growth driven by procedure volume expansion and system placements.

Strategic Initiatives: The company is advancing da Vinci 5 system rollout with force feedback technology and AI-powered Case Insights while expanding European operations through direct presence in Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

Key Metrics: Investors track procedure volume growth (targeting 15-17% in 2025), system placements, installed base expansion, and recurring revenue from instruments and accessories representing the largest revenue segment.

Progress: Q1 2025 delivered 19% revenue growth to $2.25 billion with 17% global procedure growth, while placing 367 da Vinci systems including 147 advanced da Vinci 5 models.

Focus Areas: Watch management commentary on da Vinci 5 adoption rates, international expansion progress, competitive positioning against Medtronic Hugo and Johnson & Johnson systems, and tariff impact mitigation strategies.

Risks Potential: Intensifying competition from well-funded rivals, tariff exposure from Mexico manufacturing (estimated 200 basis point margin impact), and high capital costs limiting adoption at smaller hospitals.

Concerns: Premium valuation with forward P/E of 75.72x amid slowing EPS growth expectations and potential procedure volume headwinds from European capital constraints and GLP-1 drug impact on bariatric procedures.

Market Trends: Surgical robotics market projected to reach $173.9 billion by 2029 driven by minimally invasive surgery adoption, though increasing competition and pricing pressures challenge market leaders.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) – July 23, After Market Close

Financial Trends: Annual 2025 revenue expected at $388.40 billion with EPS of $9.64, representing continued double-digit growth driven by cloud expansion and AI monetization initiatives.

Strategic Initiatives: Aggressive AI investments through Gemini models serving 1.5 billion users, Google Cloud growth targeting enterprise clients, and strategic acquisitions including $32 billion Wiz cybersecurity deal.

Key Metrics: Analysts track Google Cloud revenue growth (targeting 28%+), YouTube ad performance, search monetization, and AI integration across advertising platforms.

Progress: Q1 2025 delivered 12% revenue growth to $90.2 billion with Google Cloud up 28% to $12.3 billion, while AI Overviews reached over 1.5 billion monthly users.

Focus Areas: Management will address AI capital expenditure efficiency, regulatory compliance costs, and competitive positioning against Microsoft Azure and other cloud rivals.

Risks Potential: Antitrust investigations including DOJ probe of Character.AI deal, regulatory challenges in EU over AI data usage, and $500 million compliance settlement costs.

Concerns: High valuation with forward P/E of 20.63x amid increasing AI investment costs potentially compressing margins and regulatory overhang affecting growth trajectory.

Market Trends: AI arms race intensifying competition while creating new revenue opportunities, though regulatory scrutiny of Big Tech AI acquisitions is increasing globally.

Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) – July 25, Before Market Open

Financial Trends: Annual 2025 EPS estimated at $4.48 down from $4.66 in 2024, with revenue projected at $11.91 billion reflecting copper price volatility and production challenges.

Strategic Initiatives: Expanding molybdenum production to 27,400 tons (5% above initial plans) while advancing Michiquillay project development targeting 225,000 tons annual copper capacity by 2032.

Key Metrics: Investors monitor copper production volumes, cash costs per pound, molybdenum output, and progress on major expansion projects including Los Chancas and Tía María.

Progress: Q1 2025 delivered $1.19 EPS beating estimates of $1.05, with revenue of $3.12 billion and strong molybdenum production growth supporting diversified metal portfolio.

Focus Areas: Watch commentary on project development timelines, copper price hedging strategies, and production cost management amid inflationary pressures in mining operations.

Risks Potential: Copper price volatility (20%+ annual swings), geopolitical risks in Peru and Mexico operations, and environmental regulatory compliance costs affecting project approvals.

Concerns: EPS decline expected for 2025 despite strong production outlook, while high P/E of 22.09x appears stretched given cyclical commodity price headwinds.

Market Trends: Copper demand growth from electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure supports long-term outlook, though current elevated prices may face correction pressure.

Meet Evan Buenger

Evan Buenger, Editor of the Bull and Bear Brief

From a young age, Evan was fascinated by the stock market. At just 11 years old, he received a Wall Street Journal subscription for his birthday, sparking a lifelong passion for investing. Evan spent his formative years studying the strategies and philosophies of legendary investors like Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, and George Soros, absorbing their wisdom and developing his own unique approach to the markets.

As Evan's knowledge grew, he began to incorporate the time-tested, technically-based strategies of trading legends like William O'Neil and Richard Wyckoff into his own investment framework. By borrowing elements from each and rigorously testing them in real-time, Evan created a powerful conglomerate strategy that encompasses fundamentals, technicals, and macroeconomics.

Today, Evan is a professional trader and was a top contender in the 2020 US Investing Championship. His extraordinary performance, with a 141.8% return, is a testament to his studious background, well-informed approach, and unwavering dedication to his craft.

At the core of Evan's strategy is identifying stocks that benefit from sector trends and rotation. By combining fundamental analysis with a focus on relative strength and advanced technical analysis techniques, Evan is able to identify the stocks that are most likely to move higher or lower over the intermediate term.

While he keeps a close eye on macroeconomic trends, his willingness to adapt to changing market conditions, as well as his developed ability to know when to and not to act in a fast-moving market, is what sets him apart. Evan has consistently demonstrated his ability to navigate even the most challenging investment environments. His impressive track record and unique perspective make him a valuable voice in the world of finance, and he is thrilled to have the opportunity to share his insights and expertise with subscribers of the Bull and Bear Brief.

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