
Market’s Week in Review
May 26-May 30, 2025
Short-Term ETF Price Targets
ETF | Short-Term Target |
---|---|
SPY | $608 |
QQQ | $533 |
Week’s Market Performance
Index | Current Level | Percent Change: Week | Percent Change: Year-to-Date |
---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | 5,911.69 | +1.88% | +0.51% |
NASDAQ 100 | 21,340.99 | +2.03% | +1.56% |
VIX | 18.70 | -16.52% | +7.97%% |
10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.41% | -2.26% | -3.67% |
Gold | $3,294.76 | -1.55% | +25.54% |
Oil | $60.82 | -1.14% | -15.28% |
Market News
Steel Tariffs Heat Up as U.S. Boosts Duties Amid New Alliance
President Trump announced a significant increase in tariffs on steel imports during a speech highlighting U.S. Steel's recent partnership with a Japanese corporation. This policy change, doubling existing duties, aims to protect domestic industries from foreign competition and bolster the U.S. steel sector. The decision is expected to affect steel prices and could lead to strained trade relations with countries exporting steel to the United States. It comes as the administration seeks to balance trade policies with its broader economic agenda, emphasizing both growth and protectionism.
The U.S. Steel agreement with the Japanese firm signals a strategic move to enhance technological collaboration and strengthen market positions. This partnership is part of a broader trend of international collaborations designed to meet shifting global demands and technological advancements in the steel industry. Analysts suggest that while higher tariffs may provide short-term relief for U.S. steelmakers, they could also raise costs for industries reliant on steel, potentially affecting sectors like automotive and construction. The market is closely watching these developments, as they may lead to retaliatory measures from affected countries, further complicating international trade dynamics.
Decades in Debt: House GOP's Bold Student Loan Overhaul Sparks Controversy
Under the newly proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" by House Republicans, federal student loan borrowers may face up to 30 years of repayment, significantly extending current repayment plans that range from 10 to 25 years. Passed by the House last week, the bill is now heading to the Senate where it is expected to pass with minimal changes before potentially being signed into law by President Trump. Mark Kantrowitz, a higher education expert, criticized the 30-year term as akin to "indentured servitude," highlighting concerns about the long-term financial burden on borrowers. The bill's student loan provisions could streamline repayment options to just two plans: a fixed payment plan for 10 to 25 years or a new income-driven repayment (IDR) plan, known as the "Repayment Assistance Plan" (RAP), which includes loan forgiveness after 30 years of payments.
The RAP would adjust monthly payments based on income, ranging from 1% to 10% of a borrower's income, potentially making repayment more manageable but extending the duration significantly. Preston Cooper from the American Enterprise Institute argues that this approach ensures borrowers eventually pay off their debts without needing loan forgiveness. However, critics like James Kvaal, former U.S. undersecretary of education, warn against the potential downsides of simplifying repayment options at the cost of prolonging debt. The move is particularly concerning given the growing number of older Americans burdened by student loans, which has increased by 71% since 2017. As of early 2025, approximately 2.9 million individuals aged 62 and older are carrying federal student loans. The proposed changes could exacerbate this issue, leaving more individuals in debt well into retirement, consumer advocates caution.
Fed Holds Its Ground: Interest Rate Cuts Unlikely Before Fall
In a detailed release of the Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes, policymakers signaled that a reduction in interest rates is improbable in the near term due to mixed economic signals and the evolving U.S. tariff agenda. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the federal funds rate is expected to remain elevated as the economy and policy landscape fluctuate. Currently, the rate, which influences borrowing and savings costs nationwide, is set between 4.25% and 4.5%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that the likelihood of a rate reduction in June is nearly nonexistent, while the probability of a cut in July is less than 25%. Consequently, analysts predict that the Federal Open Market Committee may not adjust the rate until at least September.
With the prospect of a rate cut delayed, consumers continue to struggle under high prices and borrowing costs. Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, advises proactive measures such as switching to zero-interest balance transfer cards or consolidating debt with low-interest personal loans. The average credit card APR is just over 20%, close to last year's peak, and many issuers plan to maintain high rates. High-interest credit card debt is particularly costly, warns Howard Dvorkin, chairman of Debt.com. Meanwhile, experts suggest locking in returns with high-yield savings accounts, currently offering rates around 4.5%, before any potential Fed rate cuts reduce these returns. Ted Rossman from Bankrate.com highlights that current savings account rates are significantly better than historical averages and above inflation, posing a lucrative opportunity for savers.
Sky-High Luxury: U.S. Airlines Battle for Business-Class Supremacy
U.S. airlines are escalating the competition for premium international business-class travelers by enhancing in-flight luxury and comfort. American Airlines is set to introduce its upgraded business-class "suites" on select Boeing Dreamliners, featuring sliding doors and increased personal space, while United Airlines is adding doors to its Polaris seats and introducing the "Polaris Studio" with larger 27-inch 4K screens and ottomans. These moves reflect a broader trend where airlines are increasingly segmenting their premium offerings to entice high-paying customers, with American and United following Delta's lead in offering suites with sliding doors. The airlines are responding to a growing demand for enhanced travel experiences, a trend driven by what some experts, like aviation consultant Robert Mann, describe as a decline in economy-class satisfaction.
The competition among airlines to capture high-margin business-class travelers is intensifying despite concerns about a potential economic downturn. American Airlines, for instance, is eliminating most of its first-class offerings in favor of an expanded business-class service, banking on corporate policies that often allow business-class travel but not first-class. This shift is crucial for airlines facing thin margins, with American posting a mere 2.1% pre-tax margin compared to the S&P 500's average of 12.8% last year. To sustain this premium market, carriers are also focusing on the "soft product"—improving meal services, providing high-end amenities like Bang & Olufsen headphones, and enhancing onboard comforts. United's Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella emphasizes the need to offer diverse products to retain and attract customers, highlighting the importance of premium offerings for wealthier travelers who remain resilient during economic fluctuations. As airlines continue to innovate, they are not only altering cabin configurations but also setting new benchmarks for luxury in business travel.
Binance Beats the Heat: SEC Drops High-Profile Crypto Lawsuit
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially ended its lawsuit against Binance and its founder, Changpeng Zhao, marking the end of a significant chapter in crypto regulation. Filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, the dismissal comes after the case was initially brought in June 2023, accusing the world's largest crypto exchange of multiple violations, including serving U.S. users illegally and manipulating trading volumes. This move represents the conclusion of one of the most aggressive enforcement actions in U.S. crypto history, as the SEC accused Binance of operating in ways that contravened securities laws. The dismissal aligns with recent regulatory shifts as the Trump administration seeks to position itself as a supporter of the crypto industry. This regulatory pivot is further evidenced by the Justice Department's shutdown of its crypto enforcement team and the appointment of a venture capitalist with ties to crypto as head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Binance's recent maneuvers include a strategic partnership with World Liberty Financial, a budding crypto bank project that channels a significant portion of its profits to entities linked to the Trump family. The exchange is also gearing up for a $2 billion investment from the Emirati state fund MGX in the form of USD1, a new stablecoin. Meanwhile, Binance continues to expand its influence in Pakistan, with Zhao taking an advisory role in the nation's newly established Crypto Council. This dismissal comes after a previous $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. government, which led to Zhao's resignation as CEO but allowed him to maintain a significant portion of his wealth. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce highlighted the agency's shift towards clearer regulations, emphasizing the need for defined rules rather than ambiguous enforcement actions. Despite the regulatory rollback, Peirce cautioned against viewing this as a free pass for fraudulent activities in the crypto space. The SEC's new direction is further illustrated by the reversal of key rules, such as the controversial Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, and new guidance on meme coins, aligning with President Trump's crypto ventures.
Editor’s Chart of the Day

This chart is of The Progressive Corporation (PGR) showing its relative strength vs. its sector in recent weeks. It is above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages as it approaches new recent highs while the broader financials sector stair-steps higher, taking many financials names like PGR higher along with it. The stock retested support at the 50-day moving average last week and shot higher on Friday. While the stock has been strong relative to its financials sector, the overall sector has been performing well relative to the rest of the market, though not as strong as the recent trends in the technology sector. In its Q1 2025 earnings report, management reported 18% revenue growth since Q1 2024 and earnings up 11% from Q1 2024, showing Progressive’s fundamentals picture is looking great - likely a major reason for its status as a leading stock in the financials sector. Progressive is a stock to watch if the financials sector has a few more months to cool off relative to the rest of the market, provided it can maintain its relative strength in the sector.
Major Earnings
Dollar General Corporation (DG) – June 3, 2025, Before Market Open
Financial Trends: DG faces significant earnings pressure with annual EPS declining 32.32% to $5.11 in 2025 and Q4 EPS falling 52.2% year-over-year despite revenue growth of 4.5%.
Strategic Initiatives: The company is executing a “Back to Basics” initiative while closing 96 stores and 45 Popshelf locations to optimize its portfolio and improve operational efficiency.
Key Metrics: Investors will focus on same-store sales growth, gross margin recovery from shrink and markdown pressures, and progress on inventory management improvements.
Progress: Management has separated Dollar General Market and Popshelf brands and completed a store portfolio optimization review to enhance operational focus.
Focus Areas: Watch for updates on margin improvement initiatives, inventory shrink reduction, and guidance for fiscal 2026 amid ongoing operational challenges.
Risks Potential: Rising tariffs on imports, continued margin pressure from markdowns and shrink, and potential consumer spending weakness pose significant headwinds.
Concerns: Analysts have downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold following disappointing results, with FY26 EPS guidance of $5.10-5.80 reflecting continued earnings pressure.
Market Trends: Dollar General’s import-heavy business model faces headwinds from tariff increases while still outperforming competitors Dollar Tree and Family Dollar in the discount retail space.
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) – June 3, 2025, After Market Close
Financial Trends: CRWD delivered strong revenue growth of 25% to $1.06 billion in Q4 2025 with ARR reaching $4.24 billion, though EPS turned negative at -$0.37 compared to positive results a year ago.
Strategic Initiatives: The company is cutting 500 jobs while investing heavily in AI capabilities including Charlotte AI and expanding into multi-billion-dollar markets like NG-SIEM, Identity, and Cloud security.
Key Metrics: Investors will monitor net new ARR additions, customer retention rates, and progress toward the $10 billion ARR target set by management.
Progress: CrowdStrike added $224 million in net new ARR during Q4 and maintains a 97% gross retention rate as customers consolidate on the Falcon platform.
Focus Areas: Watch for commentary on recovery from the July 2024 outage, AI product adoption rates, and expansion of go-to-market capabilities in high-growth segments.
Risks Potential: Competitive pressure in cybersecurity, integration challenges from rapid expansion, and potential customer churn from the 2024 incident remain key concerns.
Concerns: Despite revenue growth, the shift to negative EPS and ongoing job cuts signal profitability challenges amid heavy investment spending.
Market Trends: The global cybersecurity market’s projected growth to $504 billion by 2030 and increased enterprise digitization drive demand for CrowdStrike’s AI-native security solutions.
DocuSign Inc (DOCU) – June 5, 2025, After Market Close
Financial Trends: DOCU reported steady growth with Q4 2025 revenue of $776.3 million (+9%) and strong profitability metrics, though growth has moderated from previous double-digit expansion rates.
Strategic Initiatives: The company has launched its Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM) platform and acquired Lexion for $154 million to expand beyond e-signatures into comprehensive contract lifecycle management.
Key Metrics: Investors will track IAM platform adoption, the transition from envelope-based to user-based pricing, and customer expansion rates beyond core e-signature services.
Progress: DocuSign successfully hosted its first developer conference and expanded IAM capabilities globally while maintaining strong cash flow generation of over $1 billion annually.
Focus Areas: Watch for updates on IAM customer migration, pricing model transition success, and progress in convincing existing customers to adopt the broader platform.
Risks Potential: Competition from Adobe Acrobat Sign, execution challenges in the pricing model transition, and potential customer resistance to platform expansion pose risks.
Concerns: The declining dollar net retention rate to 99% from 105% suggests friction in the business model transition despite overall financial stability.
Market Trends: The shift toward digital transformation and AI-powered document management creates a $50 billion addressable market opportunity for DocuSign’s expanded platform approach.
Meet Evan Buenger

Evan Buenger, Editor of the Bull and Bear Brief
From a young age, Evan was fascinated by the stock market. At just 11 years old, he received a Wall Street Journal subscription for his birthday, sparking a lifelong passion for investing. Evan spent his formative years studying the strategies and philosophies of legendary investors like Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, and George Soros, absorbing their wisdom and developing his own unique approach to the markets.
As Evan's knowledge grew, he began to incorporate the time-tested, technically-based strategies of trading legends like William O'Neil and Richard Wyckoff into his own investment framework. By borrowing elements from each and rigorously testing them in real-time, Evan created a powerful conglomerate strategy that encompasses fundamentals, technicals, and macroeconomics.
Today, Evan is a professional trader and was a top contender in the 2020 US Investing Championship. His extraordinary performance, with a 141.8% return, is a testament to his studious background, well-informed approach, and unwavering dedication to his craft.
At the core of Evan's strategy is identifying stocks that benefit from sector trends and rotation. By combining fundamental analysis with a focus on relative strength and advanced technical analysis techniques, Evan is able to identify the stocks that are most likely to move higher or lower over the intermediate term.
While he keeps a close eye on macroeconomic trends, his willingness to adapt to changing market conditions, as well as his developed ability to know when to and not to act in a fast-moving market, is what sets him apart. Evan has consistently demonstrated his ability to navigate even the most challenging investment environments. His impressive track record and unique perspective make him a valuable voice in the world of finance, and he is thrilled to have the opportunity to share his insights and expertise with subscribers of the Bull and Bear Brief.
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