
Market’s Week in Review
June 2-June 6, 2025
Short-Term ETF Price Targets
ETF | Short-Term Target |
---|---|
SPY | $608 |
QQQ | $533 |
Week’s Market Performance
Index | Current Level | Percent Change: Week | Percent Change: Year-to-Date |
---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | 6,000.36 | +1.09% | +2.02% |
NASDAQ 100 | 21,761.79 | +1.26% | +3.57% |
VIX | 16.77 | -8.66% | -3.18% |
10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.50% | +1.39% | -1.40% |
Gold | $3,312.26 | -2.05% | +26.21% |
Oil | $64.63 | +3.37% | -9.98% |
Market News
Billionaire Brawl: Trump and Musk's Public Feud Intensifies Over Spending Bill Clash
House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed hopes on Sunday for a reconciliation between former President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk following a public disagreement over a multitrillion-dollar spending bill. Johnson, speaking on ABC News' "This Week," emphasized the importance of unity for the nation, despite the ongoing tensions. The conflict arose after Musk labeled the spending bill, which narrowly passed the House, a "disgusting abomination" that would inflate federal deficits. Johnson, however, dismissed Musk's critiques, stating his legislative focus is on benefiting "hardworking Americans" rather than appeasing wealthy individuals like Musk.
The spat between Trump and Musk, who have not communicated since the fallout, underscores the depth of their disagreement. Despite Musk's significant financial backing of Trump's 2024 presidential campaign, totaling around $200 million through his super PAC, Trump seems uninterested in mending ties. This rift has potential political ramifications, as Musk has threatened to withdraw support from politicians backing the bill, posing a risk to Republican candidates. Trump warned of "very serious consequences" should Musk fund Democratic opponents. Johnson, aligning with Trump's stance, cautioned Musk against supporting Democrats, suggesting it would be a detrimental move. As the bill progresses to the Senate, the outcome of this billionaire clash remains crucial to monitor.
Aviation's Workforce Turbulence: Navigating the Skilled Labor Shortage
The aviation industry in the United States is facing a significant workforce challenge, with a looming shortage of skilled aircraft mechanics and technicians. According to a 2024 report by the Aviation Technician Education Council and Oliver Wyman, the average age of certified aircraft mechanics is 54, with 40% over the age of 60, indicating a potential shortfall of 25,000 technicians by 2028. The industry, which is crucial due to its high-value sector status, has been grappling with this issue, further exacerbated by the pandemic's impact that saw many experienced workers taking buyouts or retiring early. American Airlines' COO David Seymour highlighted the urgency, noting the retirement wave from hires made in the '80s and '90s. In response, companies like GE Aerospace, which partners with Safran to produce engines for Boeing and Airbus, are ramping up recruitment efforts, offering competitive salaries ranging from $80,000 to $90,000 annually, which exceed the national median income of $49,500.
The aviation industry is also investing in education and training to attract younger talent, with initiatives like Aviation High School in Queens, New York, providing pathways to FAA certification. This school has seen increased interest, with about 5,000 applications this year, as it collaborates with regional airlines and major carriers like American, Delta, and United. GE's chief human resources officer, Christian Meisner, emphasizes the high-tech nature of modern manufacturing, citing advanced technologies like laser-guided machining and exotic coatings. However, the sector faces broader challenges with a shortfall of air traffic controllers impacting airline growth. The Trump administration has pledged increased wages and hiring to address these shortages. Meanwhile, experts like Harvard's Gordon Hanson note that manufacturing jobs suffer from geographic immobility, adding complexity to recruitment efforts. Despite rising wages, Sarah MacLeod of the Aeronautical Repair Station Association warns that global workforce shortages could hinder recovery, underscoring the need for sustained investment in training and outreach to ensure the industry's future.
The End of Pell Grants?: Budget Battles Threaten Student Aid
The future of the Pell Grant, a crucial financial aid program for low-income college students, hangs in the balance as the White House's budget proposal and the House Republicans' reconciliation bill present conflicting priorities. Both legislative approaches could potentially disrupt access to this vital funding, which supports over 7 million students annually. The White House plan suggests maintaining the current funding levels, while House Republicans aim to reduce spending as part of broader fiscal tightening efforts. According to a report from the Congressional Budget Office, the proposed Republican cuts could result in thousands of students losing access to this essential financial aid.
The potential reduction or stagnation of Pell Grant funding could have significant implications for higher education accessibility. With college costs continuing to rise, these grants are often the deciding factor in a student's ability to attend college. Critics of the proposed cuts argue that diminishing the Pell Grant's reach could exacerbate socioeconomic disparities in education. Furthermore, any decrease in Pell Grant availability might force more students to rely on loans, increasing their debt burdens post-graduation. Stakeholders in the education sector are urging both parties to find a compromise that safeguards the program. As budget negotiations continue, the future of this foundational aid program remains uncertain, highlighting the ongoing struggle between fiscal responsibility and educational accessibility.
Mistral AI's Meteoric Rise Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Strategic Expansion
In a significant development for Europe's AI landscape, Mistral AI, a Paris-based start-up, has clinched new contracts amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars, setting the stage for a potential $1 billion fundraising initiative this year. The company, which last year was valued at nearly €6 billion, is experiencing a surge in revenues, projected to exceed $100 million annually if current trends persist. This growth is largely driven by a handful of substantial commercial contracts, with each valued at a minimum of $100 million over three to five years. Mistral's expansion is partly fueled by a geopolitical shift, as European corporations and governments seek to reduce their reliance on U.S. tech firms amidst the Trump administration's return to power.
Mistral has embarked on an ambitious expansion of its AI infrastructure, including the construction of a major data center near Paris and collaborations with Abu Dhabi's G42 and MGX. The company, co-founded by former Meta and Google DeepMind researchers and backed by Nvidia, plans to raise an additional $1 billion to support these efforts. Despite trailing behind U.S. giants like OpenAI and Anthropic in funding and commercialization, Mistral's "open" AI models provide a competitive edge by allowing customers to customize applications. The company employs a strategic sales model akin to Palantir's, utilizing "solutions architects" to tailor AI solutions for clients, which include BNP Paribas, AXA, Stellantis, and Veolia. CEO Arthur Mensch noted that demand for strategic autonomy has tripled their business outside the U.S. in recent months, with Mistral poised to capitalize on the growing global desire for independent AI infrastructure.
Crypto Firm's IPO Soars Beyond Expectations, Setting New Standards
A cryptocurrency company specializing in fully backed digital money for swift global transactions has successfully priced its initial public offering (IPO) above the anticipated range, marking a significant milestone in the industry. The IPO was expected to be priced between $15 and $17 per share, but investor demand propelled the final price to $20 per share, according to Bloomberg. The offering raised approximately $300 million, reflecting robust market confidence in the company's innovative approach to digital finance. The firm, known for its cutting-edge technology in facilitating 24/7 global payments, aims to use the proceeds to expand its market presence and enhance its platform capabilities.
The IPO's success underscores the growing investor appetite for digital currency ventures, despite recent regulatory scrutiny in the sector. Analysts suggest that this positive reception could signal a broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance. The company's valuation now stands at $2 billion, a testament to the potential seen by investors in its business model. The funds raised will also support research and development initiatives, aiming to further solidify its competitive edge. As the crypto market continues to evolve, the firm's strong market debut may encourage similar companies to explore public offerings. This event highlights a pivotal moment in the intersection of traditional finance and digital innovation, setting a precedent for future market entries.
Editor’s Chart of the Day

This chart is of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Ltd. (NCLH) showing its attempt to regain relative strength vs. its sector in recent weeks. It is above its 20-day, 50-day moving averages, but still below its 200-day moving average as it approaches new recent highs while the broader consumer discretionary sector marches higher, taking many vacation-centric names like NCLH higher along with it. The stock retested support at the 50-day moving average early last week and then shot higher later in the week. While the stock has been relatively strong relative to its consumer discretionary sector, the overall sector has been lagging relative to the rest of the market, though it is not as weak as it had been several weeks ago. Management projects 6.5% revenue growth in 2025 and also projects earnings to be down 7.4% as well. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is a stock to watch if the consumer discretionary sector continues to accelerate relative to the rest of the market, provided it can maintain its relative strength in the sector.
Major Earnings
GameStop Corp. (GME) – June 10, 2025, After Market Close
Financial Trends: GameStop expects Q1 revenue to decline 15% to $750 million year-over-year, but EPS is projected to improve 166.7% to $0.08 from a loss of $0.12 in the prior year.
Strategic Initiatives: The company is transforming into a technology-focused business centered on gaming, collectibles, and blockchain while making a strategic $515 million Bitcoin investment to diversify its treasury.
Key Metrics: Investors will focus on revenue trends across Hardware & Accessories and Software segments, cost reduction progress, and the mark-to-market impact of Bitcoin holdings on quarterly earnings.
Progress: GameStop has averaged a 138% positive earnings surprise over the past four quarters and exceeded consensus estimates by 233.3% in the most recent quarter.
Focus Areas: Management commentary on cryptocurrency investment strategy, digital transformation progress, and sustainability of cost-cutting measures will be critical discussion points.
Risks Potential: Continued declines in physical retail gaming due to digital downloads and cloud gaming trends pose ongoing revenue headwinds for legacy business segments.
Concerns: The stock trades at a premium 4.10x forward price-to-sales ratio compared to the industry average of 3.22x, raising valuation concerns despite operational improvements.
Market Trends: Gaming retail faces structural challenges from digital disruption, but meme stock volatility and cryptocurrency correlation have fundamentally altered GameStop's investment thesis.
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) – June 12, 2025, After Market Close
Financial Trends: Adobe delivered record Q1 revenue of $5.71 billion with 10% year-over-year growth and non-GAAP EPS of $5.08, representing 13% growth.
Strategic Initiatives: The company is executing an AI-first strategy with new standalone and add-on innovations generating over $125 million in ending ARR, while positioning for the acceleration of the creative economy.
Key Metrics: Digital Media ARR reached $17.63 billion with 12.6% year-over-year growth, while operating cash flows hit a record $2.48 billion.
Progress: Adobe reaffirmed its FY2025 targets with total revenue guidance of $23.30-$23.55 billion and strong momentum across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud segments.
Focus Areas: AI integration across product portfolio, Firefly Services adoption, and expansion of web and mobile user base remain key strategic priorities.
Risks Potential: Competitive pressure in creative software markets and execution risks around AI product rollouts could impact growth trajectories.
Concerns: Maintaining growth rates amid market saturation and successfully monetizing AI innovations while preserving existing subscription revenue streams.
Market Trends: The creative economy's AI-driven acceleration and increasing demand for digital content creation tools provide strong tailwinds for Adobe's core business.
Carnival Corporation (CCL) – June 20, 2025, Before Market Open
Financial Trends: Carnival achieved record Q1 revenue of $5.8 billion with operating income of $543 million nearly doubling the prior year, while raising full-year 2025 guidance by $185 million.
Strategic Initiatives: The company accelerated debt management by refinancing $5.5 billion of debt, delivering $145 million in annualized interest savings while reducing the debt balance by $0.5 billion.
Key Metrics: Net yields increased 7.3% in constant currency significantly outperforming guidance, while adjusted EBITDA reached $1.2 billion, up 38% year-over-year.
Progress: Cumulative advanced bookings for the remainder of the year are at record levels with pricing at historical highs, while booking volumes for 2026 and beyond reached record levels.
Focus Areas: Continued yield optimization, debt reduction progress, and capacity management across the fleet will be key areas of investor attention.
Risks Potential: Fuel cost volatility, geopolitical disruptions affecting cruise routes, and potential economic slowdown impacting discretionary travel spending remain material risks.
Concerns: Despite strong performance, the cruise industry's cyclical nature and high fixed costs create vulnerability to demand shocks or operational disruptions.
Market Trends: Strong consumer demand for experiential travel and the resurgence in cruise bookings post-pandemic continue to drive industry recovery and pricing power.
Meet Evan Buenger

Evan Buenger, Editor of the Bull and Bear Brief
From a young age, Evan was fascinated by the stock market. At just 11 years old, he received a Wall Street Journal subscription for his birthday, sparking a lifelong passion for investing. Evan spent his formative years studying the strategies and philosophies of legendary investors like Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, and George Soros, absorbing their wisdom and developing his own unique approach to the markets.
As Evan's knowledge grew, he began to incorporate the time-tested, technically-based strategies of trading legends like William O'Neil and Richard Wyckoff into his own investment framework. By borrowing elements from each and rigorously testing them in real-time, Evan created a powerful conglomerate strategy that encompasses fundamentals, technicals, and macroeconomics.
Today, Evan is a professional trader and was a top contender in the 2020 US Investing Championship. His extraordinary performance, with a 141.8% return, is a testament to his studious background, well-informed approach, and unwavering dedication to his craft.
At the core of Evan's strategy is identifying stocks that benefit from sector trends and rotation. By combining fundamental analysis with a focus on relative strength and advanced technical analysis techniques, Evan is able to identify the stocks that are most likely to move higher or lower over the intermediate term.
While he keeps a close eye on macroeconomic trends, his willingness to adapt to changing market conditions, as well as his developed ability to know when to and not to act in a fast-moving market, is what sets him apart. Evan has consistently demonstrated his ability to navigate even the most challenging investment environments. His impressive track record and unique perspective make him a valuable voice in the world of finance, and he is thrilled to have the opportunity to share his insights and expertise with subscribers of the Bull and Bear Brief.
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