
Market’s Week in Review
July 28-August 1, 2025
Short-Term ETF Price Targets
ETF | Short-Term Target |
---|---|
SPY | $626 |
QQQ | $560 |
Week’s Market Performance
Index | Current Level | Percent Change: Week | Percent Change: Year-to-Date |
---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | 6,296.79 | -2.37% | +6.06% |
NASDAQ 100 | 23,065.48 | -2.54% | +8.33% |
VIX | 16.45 | +36.86% | +18.76% |
10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.42% | -4.35% | -7.67% |
Gold | $3,348.20 | +1.28% | +27.92% |
Oil | $67.38 | +0.85% | -6.29% |
Market News
Boeing’s St. Louis Defense Workers Set for First Major Strike in Nearly Three Decades
Roughly 3,200 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) at Boeing’s St. Louis-area defense factories are preparing to strike at midnight after voting to reject a revised contract offer from the company. The proposed deal would have raised wages by 20% and increased retirement contributions, but workers deemed the offer insufficient, seeking a pact that better reflects their skills and contributions to national defense. Boeing said the contract offered the highest pay ever for this group, with average annual wages set to increase from $75,000 to more than $102,600. The union last held a strike in 1996, and this looming walkout could inject fresh operational and financial pressure on Boeing’s defense and space division, which comprises about 30% of the company’s revenue.
Union leader Tom Boelling stated that workers deserve “a contract that reflects their skill, dedication, and the critical role they play,” while Boeing’s local executive Dan Gillian assured that contingency plans are in place to minimize disruption. The machinists manufacture key products, including F-15 fighter jets, T-7 trainers, missiles, and components for the 777X aircraft. This labor unrest mirrors recent union activism across the aerospace sector, such as a strike at Pratt & Whitney that contributed to engine shortages for Airbus. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg noted that the threat of this strike is smaller in scale than last year’s commercial-division walkout in Seattle, expressing confidence in the company’s ability to manage through the situation.
OPEC+ Increases Oil Output Again as Market Pressures and Global Politics Intensify
OPEC+ has decided to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, marking the latest in a series of significant output hikes aimed at regaining global market share. The decision, made during a virtual meeting of eight OPEC+ members, comes amid growing U.S. pressure on India to reduce Russian oil imports and as the group responds to supply concerns linked to Russia. This move represents a full reversal of previous production cuts and includes an additional supply boost for the United Arab Emirates, totaling about 2.5 million barrels per day, or 2.4% of global oil demand. OPEC+ indicated that strong market fundamentals, a healthy economy, and low oil inventories were key reasons for the increase, with Brent crude prices recently closing near $70 a barrel.
The group, which controls roughly half the world’s oil, has shifted from supporting prices to expanding output in response to global calls, including those from President Donald Trump, to increase supply. The eight OPEC+ members plan to meet again on September 7, where further adjustments could be considered, including the possible reinstatement of some output cuts. Analysts noted that the market has so far absorbed the added supply due to stockpiling, particularly in China, but attention now turns to potential geopolitical developments, especially regarding U.S.-Russia relations. OPEC+ still maintains other voluntary and non-voluntary production cuts set to expire at the end of 2026, and experts warn of future challenges in unwinding the remaining cuts while managing international tensions.
Tariffs, Jobs Data, and BLS Firing Spark Turbulence in U.S. Economic Outlook
A series of dramatic economic events jolted the United States this week, as President Trump’s administration instituted sweeping new tariffs, economic growth showed mixed signals, and the president moved to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The week began with trade negotiations in Europe and Asia, leading to a deal with the EU that set tariffs at 15% but left the future of the U.S.-China tariff truce unresolved. As Trump unveiled higher import taxes, including on traditional allies, markets reacted sharply, with major companies faltering and monthly tariff collections reaching a record $29 billion. The release of a disappointing jobs report on Friday, showing just 73,000 jobs added in July and revised downward totals for May and June, increased recession fears among economists.
Despite raw economic indicators like a 3% annualized GDP gain and continued stock market highs for tech companies, deep concerns remain about business investment, inflation, and the durability of the labor market. The White House cited labor force changes from immigration crackdowns as a positive, but many economists see the shrinking workforce and rising tariffs as ominous signs. Trump’s firing of BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer over jobs data sparked warnings about political interference in government statistics, with some experts likening the move to tactics seen in authoritarian regimes. As the administration prepares nominations for key federal economic positions, uncertainty persists about the direction of trade policy, monetary leadership, and the overall health of the economy.
Tesla Ordered to Pay $242 Million After Jury Rules Company Partly Liable in Fatal 2019 Florida Crash
A Miami jury has found Tesla partly responsible for a fatal 2019 crash involving its Autopilot system, ordering the automaker to pay more than $242 million in damages to the victims’ families. The plaintiffs, representing Naibel Benavides Leon and Dillon Angulo, were awarded $129 million in compensatory damages and $200 million in punitive damages. Jurors determined Tesla must pay 33% of the compensatory damages and all the punitive damages, with the company indicating its liability could be capped at $170 million depending on Florida law. The driver, George McGee, was found to be 67% at fault, but since he was a defendant, he is not required to pay his share.
Plaintiffs’ lawyer Brett Schreiber stated the verdict delivers justice for the “tragic death and lifelong injuries” caused by the crash, attributing liability in part to Tesla’s failure to restrict Autopilot use to appropriate roadways and public claims about the technology’s capability. Tesla plans to appeal, contending that its system is not to blame, and insisting the crash was caused by driver error. The company further noted that punitive damages in such product liability cases are likely to be overturned under Florida law. The 2019 crash, which occurred near the Ocean Reef Club in the Florida Keys, adds to scrutiny of Tesla’s autonomous driving systems, which have been the subject of several lawsuits in recent years.
Tech Giants Set to Shatter Records With $400 Billion AI Investment Surge
America’s largest technology companies are on track to invest more than $400 billion in artificial intelligence initiatives in the coming year, eclipsing U.S. government spending on education, employment, and social services in 2025 to date. Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet have already poured a combined $155 billion into AI development, largely focused on expanding data center capacity and acquiring advanced hardware. Leading executives, including Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and Meta’s CFO Amy Hood, signaled aggressive increases, with planned capital expenditures set to double or even surpass previous records. Wall Street has responded favorably; shares of Microsoft, Meta, and Google surged after they revealed bigger-than-expected AI spending in recent earnings reports.
Amazon alone is forecast to invest up to $118 billion, and Microsoft expects to deploy $100 billion in its next fiscal year, while Alphabet plans $85 billion and Meta up to $72 billion. Even Apple, historically reserved, is increasing investment in AI and reallocating workforce resources despite lagging behind its peers in AI deployment. Smaller firms like OpenAI are attracting significant funding as well, recently raising $8.3 billion toward a planned $40 billion round. This investment race, driven by competitive pressure and the promise of transformative technology, is reshaping the financial landscape and surpasses the defense spending of major world powers, with analysts predicting the AI spending boom is far from over.
Editor’s Chart of the Day

This chart highlights West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. (WST), a leader in high-tech systems for injectable medicines and healthcare delivery. WST has underperformed many of its sector peers, even as the entire health care industry has grappled with persistent headwinds. The share price is currently hovering just above its 20-day moving average (a key short-term trend indicator) but remains stuck below the longer-term 200-day moving average. Interestingly, WST sits well above its 50-day moving average, signaling short-term resilience despite recent turbulence.
Throughout the health care sector’s recent bout of weakness, WST continually retested a firm support zone near $207, a level where buyers have reliably stepped in to halt further declines. The stock experienced a strong gap higher following its latest earnings release, but subsequent sector underperformance dragged it back lower toward its support.
Looking back at the past twelve months, West Pharmaceutical has delivered lackluster performance compared to its sector rivals, a pattern reflecting the health care industry’s struggle to regain momentum amid ongoing cost pressures across the board. Management, however, remains constructive about the outlook, forecasting a healthy 5.4% rise in revenue for 2025, though they expect earnings to dip by 3.6% as the business recalibrates amid broad-based sector challenges.
WST is worth watching as a potential turnaround play if the health care sector regains leadership in the broader market. However, should the company’s relative weakness persist while peers recover, investors might find stronger opportunities elsewhere in the sector until the company’s headwinds subside.
Major Earnings
Wayfair Inc. (W) – August 04, 2025, Before Market Open
Financial Trends: Wayfair expects 2025 annual revenue of $11.85 billion with continued losses projected at -$0.64 per share as the company focuses on market share gains in a contracting home goods category.
Strategic Initiatives: Management is expanding the CastleGate fulfillment network and leveraging AI-driven inventory management while pursuing vendor-funded promotional activities to maintain competitive positioning.
Key Metrics: Investors should monitor active customers (currently 21.1 million), average order value ($301), LTM revenue per customer ($562), and orders delivered trends amid ongoing sector headwinds.
Progress: The company achieved Q1 2025 EPS of $0.10 versus -$0.22 consensus and maintained flat year-over-year revenue despite the fourth consecutive year of category contraction.
Focus Areas: Watch management commentary on tariff impacts from potential trade policy changes, CastleGate efficiency improvements, and second-half 2025 demand visibility amid housing market uncertainty.
Risks Potential: Rising tariffs on imported goods, prolonged housing market weakness, and intense competition from Amazon could pressure margins and delay profitability targets beyond 2026.
Concerns: Street estimates project flat Q2 revenue growth at $3.12 billion with analyst EBITDA forecasts reduced from $533 million to $490 million for 2025 due to challenging operating environment.
Market Trends: The global home decor market growth of 4.5% CAGR through 2032 benefits from housing market recovery expectations, though furniture retailers face tariff headwinds and consumer spending uncertainty in 2025.
Walt Disney Company (DIS) – August 06, 2025, Before Market Open
Financial Trends: Disney anticipates 2025 annual EPS of $5.75 representing 16% growth with revenue expected at $94.2 billion as streaming profitability and parks expansion drive improved fundamentals.
Strategic Initiatives: The company is launching ESPN's standalone streaming service at $29.99 monthly while investing $60 billion in parks expansion and integrating NFL partnership opportunities through ESPN.
Key Metrics: Analysts track Disney+ subscriber retention (currently 126 million), streaming ARPU growth, parks attendance trends, and direct-to-consumer operating income progression toward sustained profitability.
Progress: Q2 2025 delivered streaming segment operating income of $336 million versus $47 million prior year with 7% revenue growth to $23.6 billion demonstrating operational momentum.
Focus Areas: Management will address streaming subscriber dynamics, cruise ship capacity additions contributing $1+ billion annual revenue by 2026, and ESPN DTC monetization strategies.
Risks Potential: Accelerating cord-cutting trends, intensifying streaming competition from Netflix and Amazon, and macroeconomic pressures on discretionary spending threaten parks and streaming growth.
Concerns: Disney+ subscriber base declined 700,000 in Q1 while facing margin pressure from content costs and potential subscriber volatility as pricing increases test consumer willingness to pay.
Market Trends: Streaming market consolidation and 46% of U.S. households now cord-cutting create both opportunities and challenges as traditional TV revenues decline while digital consumption accelerates.
DoorDash Inc. (DASH) – August 06, 2025, After Market Close
Financial Trends: DoorDash projects 2025 annual EPS of $2.16 with revenue estimates of $12.86 billion representing continued strong growth driven by marketplace expansion and improved unit economics.
Strategic Initiatives: The company completed $3.85 billion Deliveroo acquisition expanding to 44 countries and acquired SevenRooms for $1.2 billion to enhance restaurant technology and hospitality services.
Key Metrics: Investors monitor total orders growth (732 million in Q1), marketplace GOV trends, take rate expansion, and monthly active users amid competitive pressures and international expansion.
Progress: Q1 2025 generated record $3.03 billion revenue with $590 million adjusted EBITDA and positive GAAP net income of $193 million demonstrating path to sustained profitability.
Focus Areas: Watch commentary on Deliveroo integration timeline, advertising revenue acceleration prospects, and margin sustainability as the company balances growth investments with profitability targets.
Risks Potential: Regulatory challenges regarding driver classification, intense competition from Uber Eats in key markets, and potential economic slowdown affecting consumer discretionary spending on delivery services.
Concerns: Jefferies downgrade to Hold citing premium valuation at 29x 2026 EBITDA while take-rate growth slows and non-core ventures require optimistic assumptions to justify current multiples.
Market Trends: Global food delivery market growing at 6.95% CAGR toward $602.78 billion by 2030 benefits from urbanization and digital adoption, though market saturation and consolidation pressures intensify competition.
Meet Evan Buenger

Evan Buenger, Editor of the Bull and Bear Brief
From a young age, Evan was fascinated by the stock market. At just 11 years old, he received a Wall Street Journal subscription for his birthday, sparking a lifelong passion for investing. Evan spent his formative years studying the strategies and philosophies of legendary investors like Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, and George Soros, absorbing their wisdom and developing his own unique approach to the markets.
As Evan's knowledge grew, he began to incorporate the time-tested, technically-based strategies of trading legends like William O'Neil and Richard Wyckoff into his own investment framework. By borrowing elements from each and rigorously testing them in real-time, Evan created a powerful conglomerate strategy that encompasses fundamentals, technicals, and macroeconomics.
Today, Evan is a professional trader and was a top contender in the 2020 US Investing Championship. His extraordinary performance, with a 141.8% return, is a testament to his studious background, well-informed approach, and unwavering dedication to his craft.
At the core of Evan's strategy is identifying stocks that benefit from sector trends and rotation. By combining fundamental analysis with a focus on relative strength and advanced technical analysis techniques, Evan is able to identify the stocks that are most likely to move higher or lower over the intermediate term.
While he keeps a close eye on macroeconomic trends, his willingness to adapt to changing market conditions, as well as his developed ability to know when to and not to act in a fast-moving market, is what sets him apart. Evan has consistently demonstrated his ability to navigate even the most challenging investment environments. His impressive track record and unique perspective make him a valuable voice in the world of finance, and he is thrilled to have the opportunity to share his insights and expertise with subscribers of the Bull and Bear Brief.
Subscribe to Stock Portfolio Recommendations Newsletter to read the rest.
Become a paying subscriber of the Bull and Bear Brief: Stock Portfolio Recommendations Newsletter to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
Upgrade to Stock Portfolio Recommendations NewsletterA subscription gets you:
- Expert-curated stock trades delivered weekly to strategically build your wealth-generating portfolio
- Real-time position management with timely alerts on existing holdings—ensuring you capture profits and minimize losses with precision timing
- Monthly Q&A where we address paid subscriber questions, examine real-world scenarios, and discuss current market conditions
- Regular reviews of both successful and unsuccessful trade recommendations, analyzing what worked, what didn't, and the lessons we can extract