
Market’s Week in Review
June 16-June 20, 2025
Short-Term ETF Price Targets
ETF | Short-Term Target |
---|---|
SPY | $624 |
QQQ | $556 |
Week’s Market Performance
Index | Current Level | Percent Change: Week | Percent Change: Year-to-Date |
---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | 5,967.84 | -0.48% | +1.47% |
NASDAQ 100 | 21,626.39 | -1.42% | +2.92% |
VIX | 20.59 | +7.74% | +18.88% |
10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.40% | -1.64% | -4.22% |
Gold | $3,365.37 | -0.56% | +28.23% |
Oil | $73.94 | +3.02% | +2.99% |
Market News
OpenAI Lands $200 Million Defense Deal to Revolutionize Military Tech
OpenAI has clinched a significant $200 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense, marking a landmark venture into military applications of artificial intelligence. This agreement comes months after OpenAI announced its collaboration with defense-tech startup Anduril, which specializes in autonomous systems and AI-driven defense solutions. The partnership aims to leverage OpenAI's cutting-edge AI models to enhance defense capabilities, particularly in areas requiring rapid data analysis and decision-making. This move signals a strategic shift for OpenAI, traditionally known for its focus on general-purpose AI models, into more specialized and security-sensitive applications.
The implications of this deal are substantial, as the Department of Defense looks to modernize its technological arsenal in an era where rapid advancements in AI can redefine national security. According to a recent report by Bloomberg, this contract aligns with the Pentagon's broader strategy to integrate AI across various military operations, potentially improving efficiency and operational outcomes. However, the partnership also raises ethical questions about the use of AI in warfare, a topic that has sparked considerable debate among tech companies and policymakers. With this deal, OpenAI and Anduril are poised to play a critical role in shaping the future landscape of defense technology, blending innovation with national security interests. As the contract unfolds, it will be crucial to monitor how these technologies are implemented and the broader impact on both the defense sector and AI development.
Strategic Strikes: U.S. Targets Iran's Nuclear Ambitions in Midnight Operation
In a dramatic turn of events, the United States conducted late-night military strikes on Iran's nuclear sites at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, aiming to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities. Vice President JD Vance clarified on Sunday that the U.S. is not at war with Iran itself, but specifically targeting "Iran's nuclear program." This follows Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's assertion that Iran's "nuclear ambitions have been obliterated" by the Trump administration's decisive action. However, the situation remains volatile as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that Iran retains all defensive options, hinting at potential retaliation that could escalate tensions in the region. The strategic strikes were praised by White House officials, including President Trump, as a success, although the full extent of the damage inflicted remains unclear as of Sunday.
Vance emphasized the U.S. objective of achieving peace through the prevention of Iran's nuclear weapon development, stating that the recent strikes were instrumental in delaying their nuclear program. Despite the bold actions, details about the operational success and the remaining capabilities of the targeted sites were withheld due to the sensitivity of intelligence data. Vance expressed confidence in the mission's effectiveness, suggesting that it has significantly impeded Iran’s nuclear progress. This development marks a critical moment in U.S.-Iran relations, with potential implications for regional stability and international diplomatic efforts. As the situation unfolds, global markets and geopolitical stakeholders will be closely monitoring any retaliatory measures from Iran and their impact on the broader Middle East dynamics.
Social Security's Ticking Clock: Trust Fund Longevity Revised
The Social Security Administration has released updated projections indicating that the trust funds supporting benefit payments may be depleted sooner than previously expected. According to the report, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is now projected to be exhausted by 2033, a year earlier than last year’s estimate. This advancement in the timeline is attributed to slower-than-expected economic growth and demographic shifts, including lower birth rates and increased life expectancy. The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund, however, is projected to remain solvent until 2057, unchanged from prior estimates. Collectively, the combined OASI and DI fund depletion would lead to an automatic reduction in benefits unless Congress intervenes.
The potential depletion of these trust funds poses significant implications for retirees and policymakers. As the largest federal program, Social Security provides essential financial support to millions of Americans, with approximately 65 million beneficiaries in 2023. If Congress does not act to address the shortfall, beneficiaries could face a reduction in benefits by as much as 20-25%. Lawmakers are now under increased pressure to consider various reform options, such as raising the payroll tax cap, adjusting benefit formulas, or increasing the retirement age. Any proposed changes will likely be hotly debated, given their potential impact on voters and the economy. With the clock ticking, the urgency for a bipartisan solution grows, highlighting the importance of timely legislative action to secure the program's future.
Manufacturers' Blueprint: Designing Out Tariffs
Global manufacturers are increasingly turning to a strategic approach known as "tariff engineering" to minimize duty costs, a move gaining traction amid shifting trade policies. Tariff engineering involves altering the design or composition of products to fit into lower tariff categories, thereby reducing import expenses. This technique has become particularly relevant as manufacturers navigate a landscape of fluctuating tariffs and trade barriers, intensified by geopolitical tensions and trade wars. For instance, companies have begun modifying everything from textiles to electronics in order to qualify for lower tariff rates, which can result in significant cost savings.
The rise of tariff engineering is not just about cost-cutting; it reflects a broader trend of adaptability within global supply chains. By redesigning products, companies can maintain competitive pricing while managing risk associated with trade policy changes. Critics, however, argue that this strategy could lead to a "race to the bottom," where product quality might be compromised for tariff benefits. Despite these concerns, many firms see tariff engineering as a viable strategy for sustaining profit margins in an increasingly protectionist world. This trend also highlights the importance of savvy legal and trade expertise in corporate strategy, as businesses strive to optimize their operations. As the global trade environment continues to evolve, manufacturers are likely to expand their use of tariff engineering to maintain their competitive edge.
Meta’s AI Talent Hunt: A Billion-Dollar Chase for Superintelligence
Meta Platforms is aggressively seeking to bolster its AI capabilities by attempting to poach employees from OpenAI, offering signing bonuses as high as $100 million and even more lucrative annual compensation packages. OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, revealed this during his appearance on the "Uncapped" podcast. Despite Meta's efforts, Altman stated that none of OpenAI's top talent has taken the bait. He acknowledged Meta's view of OpenAI as its primary competitor, noting that Meta's current AI endeavors have not met expectations. This revelation comes amid Meta's ongoing struggles, including the recent delay of its flagship AI model, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
The tech giant, led by CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is making substantial investments in AI, aiming to form a leading "superintelligence" team. Its Meta AI research division is at the forefront, managing initiatives like the Llama series of open-source large language models. Meta's ambition also led to a significant deal with Scale AI, acquiring a 49% stake in the startup for $14.3 billion, and bringing its founder, Alexandr Wang, on board to lead a superintelligence research lab. Despite these moves, Altman expresses skepticism about Meta's strategy, arguing that large upfront compensation could undermine the work culture and innovation. However, some analysts, like Daniel Newman from Futurum Group, argue that Meta’s open-source initiatives, such as Llama, have laid the groundwork for broader AI development, suggesting that Meta's massive investments could eventually pay off in building robust AI models.
Editor’s Chart of the Day

This chart is of Twilio, Inc. (TWLO) showing its current high relative strength vs. its sector and the market in recent weeks. It is above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages as it pulls back to its 20-day moving average amid recent market softness. The stock retested support at the 20-day moving average early last week and then chopped sideways along the same moving average for the rest of the week, a potentially bullish sign. While the stock has been in the middle of the pack of leading stocks in its software sector, the overall sector has also been struggling to make new highs in recent weeks, along with the rest of the market. Management projects 8.4% revenue growth in 2025, but also projects earnings to be 24.4% higher as the company works on its operational efficiency. Twilio, Inc. is a stock to watch if the software sector continues to outperform relative to the rest of the market, provided the stock can maintain its relative strength in the sector.
Major Earnings
FedEx Corporation (FDX) – June 24, 2025, After Market Close
Financial Trends: FedEx Q2 2025 revenues declined 1% to $22.0 billion with adjusted EPS of $4.05, while operating margin compressed to 6.3% amid weak industrial demand and the expiration of its U.S. Postal Service contract.
Strategic Initiatives: The company announced plans to fully separate FedEx Freight within 18 months, creating a standalone publicly traded LTL company, while advancing its DRIVE cost-saving program targeting $2.2 billion in fiscal 2025 savings.
Key Metrics: Investors will focus on DRIVE program savings progress, international export volume growth (up 9% in Q2), operating margins across Express and Ground segments, and freight separation timeline details.
Progress: FedEx achieved $540 million in Q2 cost savings through DRIVE initiatives and completed $1 billion in share repurchases, demonstrating operational transformation momentum despite revenue headwinds.
Focus Areas: Management will likely discuss freight separation valuation expectations, Network 2.0 optimization benefits, industrial demand recovery timing, and updated fiscal 2025 guidance refinements.
Risks Potential: Continued U.S. industrial production weakness, potential tariff impacts on international operations, and execution risks around the complex freight business separation process pose material challenges.
Concerns: The company’s revised fiscal 2025 EPS guidance of $19-20 represents a reduction from earlier estimates, reflecting persistent industrial sector headwinds and contract expiration impacts.
Market Trends: The logistics sector faces cyclical industrial demand weakness while e-commerce growth and supply chain modernization trends support long-term express delivery and ground network expansion opportunities.h 2029, driven by millennial homebuying and chronic housing supply shortages.
Carnival Corporation (CCL) – June 24, 2025, Before Market Open
Financial Trends: Carnival posted record Q1 2025 revenues of $5.8 billion with 7.3% higher net yields and operating income of $543 million, nearly doubling prior year performance.
Strategic Initiatives: The company is executing its “Innovation Itinerary” with new Excel-class ships Carnival Festivale (2027) and Carnival Tropicale (2028), plus three Project Ace vessels starting 2029, while expanding private destinations including Celebration Key opening July 2025.
Key Metrics: Investors will track net yields growth, booking curve strength for 2025-2026, onboard revenue per passenger, and debt reduction progress following $5.5 billion refinancing transactions.
Progress: Over 80% of 2025 capacity is already booked at premium pricing with record 2026 booking volumes, while the company refinanced debt delivering $145 million in annualized interest savings.
Focus Areas: Management will emphasize booking trends for remainder of 2025, Celebration Key ramp-up impact, fleet capacity optimization, and progress toward 2026 SEA Change financial targets.
Risks Potential: Macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical uncertainties affecting itineraries, fuel price fluctuations, and potential consumer spending shifts on discretionary travel remain key risks.
Concerns: While guidance was raised, concerns persist about sustaining premium pricing power and managing operational costs amid industry capacity increases and competitive pressures.
Market Trends: Post-pandemic cruise demand recovery continues with strong pricing power, pent-up leisure travel demand, and favorable demographics supporting the industry’s long-term growth trajectory as diners become more price-conscious amid economic pressures.
Nike, Inc. (NKE) – June 26, 2025, After Market Close
Financial Trends: Nike reported Q3 2025 revenues down 9% to $11.3 billion with net income falling 32% to $794 million, reflecting broad-based declines across all geographic segments and channels.
Strategic Initiatives: Under CEO Elliott Hill’s “Win Now” strategy, Nike is repositioning around sport-centric innovation, rebuilding wholesale partnerships, and accelerating product development to regain brand momentum.
Key Metrics: Investors will scrutinize revenue trends by geography (especially China down 17% in Q3), direct-to-consumer performance, inventory levels, and gross margin recovery progress.
Progress: Hill’s 90-day strategic reset emphasized athlete storytelling and performance products, though revenue declines have persisted with digital sales falling 15% and wholesale down 7% in Q3.
Focus Areas: Management will address turnaround timeline expectations, new product pipeline strength, wholesale relationship rebuilding efforts, and inventory clearance strategies.
Risks Potential: Intensifying competition from brands like On Running and Hoka, continued China market weakness, consumer discretionary spending pressures, and potential tariff impacts pose significant headwinds.
Concerns: Street expects Q4 revenues to decline mid-teens (13-15%) with EPS of just $0.11 versus $1.01 prior year, reflecting the magnitude of Nike’s current challenges.
Market Trends: The athletic footwear market faces competitive disruption as newer brands gain share through innovation, while traditional players struggle with inventory management and changing consumer preferences toward performance over lifestyle products.
Meet Evan Buenger

Evan Buenger, Editor of the Bull and Bear Brief
From a young age, Evan was fascinated by the stock market. At just 11 years old, he received a Wall Street Journal subscription for his birthday, sparking a lifelong passion for investing. Evan spent his formative years studying the strategies and philosophies of legendary investors like Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, and George Soros, absorbing their wisdom and developing his own unique approach to the markets.
As Evan's knowledge grew, he began to incorporate the time-tested, technically-based strategies of trading legends like William O'Neil and Richard Wyckoff into his own investment framework. By borrowing elements from each and rigorously testing them in real-time, Evan created a powerful conglomerate strategy that encompasses fundamentals, technicals, and macroeconomics.
Today, Evan is a professional trader and was a top contender in the 2020 US Investing Championship. His extraordinary performance, with a 141.8% return, is a testament to his studious background, well-informed approach, and unwavering dedication to his craft.
At the core of Evan's strategy is identifying stocks that benefit from sector trends and rotation. By combining fundamental analysis with a focus on relative strength and advanced technical analysis techniques, Evan is able to identify the stocks that are most likely to move higher or lower over the intermediate term.
While he keeps a close eye on macroeconomic trends, his willingness to adapt to changing market conditions, as well as his developed ability to know when to and not to act in a fast-moving market, is what sets him apart. Evan has consistently demonstrated his ability to navigate even the most challenging investment environments. His impressive track record and unique perspective make him a valuable voice in the world of finance, and he is thrilled to have the opportunity to share his insights and expertise with subscribers of the Bull and Bear Brief.
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